March 31, 2014
I haven’t done a book review for a while, as I’ve been reading outside the usual investing and economics areas. With Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the continuing low-grade conflicts in Asia as China expands its footprint, I thought it was time to discuss one of the more interesting books on geopolitics I’ve read recently, The Revenge of Geography by Robert Kaplan.
March 28, 2014
At Commonwealth, we evaluate managers of all sorts on many criteria, statistical and qualitative. We never know, really, whether the analysis will work—which is why we constantly review and manage our recommended list—but we know, from experience, most of what to look for in most types of funds.
March 28, 2014
[audio http://theindependentmarketobserver.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/brad-mcmillan-3-24.mp3]
March 27, 2014
As I start to put together my commentary for the month of March, one thing that’s become apparent is that the market has weakened significantly. In February, we saw a dip at the start and then a strong recovery, but this month we’re pretty much flat, which conceals several significant ups and downs.
March 26, 2014
After writing yesterday’s post on the reversal of globalization, I spent some more time thinking about the rest of the world. Like most Americans, that’s pretty much how I think of it: the U.S. plus the rest of world. I fully recognize just how inadequate this is, but it remains my default mode of thinking, as it does for most of the U.S. population.
March 25, 2014
Russia is the new poster child for a deglobalizing world, which will result in less economic efficiency and a lower standard of living in many countries. Fortunately, the U.S. will be positioned to benefit from this.
March 21, 2014
One of the biggest problems most investors have—heck, that most people have—is seeing the big picture. A key finding of behavioral finance is that we weight more recent, more personal experience much more heavily than we should, and it costs us.
I’m thinking of this as I head out to speak in Columbus, Ohio. I give talks around the country for Commonwealth advisors and their clients, and it is invariably a great experience. The advisors are wonderful, the clients are interested and interesting, and I always learn a great deal talking with people.
March 20, 2014
The story coming into the Yellen Fed was that Janet was a monetary dove, that she wasn’t up to the task of pulling back the stimulus, that she was going to keep pushing money into the system until things collapsed, that she was a loose woman who would lead the monetary system to perdition. All very 19th century—and, as it turns out, all wrong.
