My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

Brad here. One of the things I have learned is that while history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, it does rhyme—even in the financial markets. My colleague, Tom Logue, is a student of how the market behaves. Here, he lays out some reasons for optimism as we enter the fall. Thanks, Tom, and I hope you are right!

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Once again, this week was all about inflation—and the data was more mixed this time. Most of the news was good, as core inflation continued to tick down, while the monthly figures were in line with expectations. But the year-on-year headline number rose for the first time in months. It didn’t rise by a lot, only 0.2 percent. Still, that wasn’t a drop. It also raises the possibility that inflation could be bouncing back. Spoiler alert: I don’t think so.

This morning’s inflation data came in pretty much in line with expectations. Headline inflation was up 0.2 percent for the month and 3.2 percent for the year. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) was up 0.2 percent for the month and 4.7 percent for the year. So far, so good. At 0.2 percent per month, that would mean an annual inflation rate of between 2 percent and 3 percent. Pretty good, yes?

Brad here. One of the things we try to do at Commonwealth is look beyond the numbers. Yes, the numbers are what they are—but what do they mean? Here is my colleague Joe Dunn’s take on one of the biggest numbers, gross domestic product, and why it is so important to look deeper. Take it away, Joe!

July was another good month for stocks across the board. The U.S. indices were up in the low single digits, while international markets also did well. Riskier investments like the Nasdaq and emerging markets did best. Fixed income, on the other hand, was much weaker for the month as interest rates rose and the Fed hiked base rates. Financial markets were clearly in a risk-on mode and benefited from riskier investments like tech stocks at the expense of more boring ones.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

There was really only one thing that mattered this week: the economy kept growing. I should probably also mention, of course, that the market took a hit. But, as we will see, that likely doesn’t matter. Let’s get into it.

Earlier this week, Fitch Ratings downgraded its credit rating for the U.S. government from AAA to AA+. At first glance, this news sounds like a big deal. After all, aren’t U.S. Treasury securities considered low-risk investments?