February was an eventful month for the markets. There was a 10-percent market drawdown in the U.S., something we haven’t seen for almost two years. Although many were worried that this was the “big one,” the markets recovered more than half of their losses by month-end, and the economic fundamentals remain sound.

Yesterday, President Trump announced that the U.S. will be imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. This shocked markets here in the U.S. and around the world, driving them back down just as it looked like they were recovering from the downturn last month. What happened? And is this a more serious threat going forward? In a word, yes.

As we head into March, I thought it would be a good time to take an economic snapshot—by looking back at February and at what we might expect in the month ahead.

Yesterday was the first time that the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, testified before Congress. There has been quite a bit of coverage regarding what he said both in his initial statement and in response to questions. Here, I want to focus on just one sentence. After noting that “the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] routinely consults monetary policy rules,” he concluded with what I think was the most important sentence of the day: “Personally, I find these rule prescriptions helpful.” He then referenced a section in the Fed’s monetary policy report that goes through some of the more common rules and how the Fed applies them.

Normally, I don’t weigh in on individual economic stats. But when the consumer confidence number came out this morning, my jaw actually dropped and I muttered “wow” under my breath. (That doesn’t happen often either!) This is, in fact, such an unusual occurrence that I think we need to consider exactly what it means—which is probably not as good as it looks at first glance.

Last week was a slow one for economic data. But this week, we’ll have five major economic reports that will give us a detailed look at both consumers and manufacturing. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Today's post is from Brian McCormick, manager of Commonwealth's Investment Management and Research team.

Today's post is from Peter Essele, manager of Commonwealth's Investment Management and Research team.

Today’s post comes from Anu Gaggar of Commonwealth’s Investment Research team. Take it away, Anu! —Brad

Last week’s data covered wide slices of the economy and was generally weak, while the week ahead will be a slow one. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.