The Independent Market Observer

Memorial Day Reflections 2018

May 25, 2018

As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, I would like to take a moment to honor members of the U.S. military for their service and their sacrifice. I wrote the following post in 2015, although the sentiment remains true today.

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Investing Is Hard

May 24, 2018

After last week’s posts on how I invest, I have been talking with a number of people, in person and online, about how they approach investing. It has been a very interesting and educational week, and I have come out from it with one conclusion: investing is hard.

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Indices: Market-Cap Weighting and Beyond

May 23, 2018

We closed yesterday’s post on passive investing with the observation that while market-capitalization-weighted indices (i.e., stock indices that include stocks based on how much the company is worth) have certain biases baked in, other indices have their own—but different—biases. There really is no perfect solution, and you just have to be aware of the bets you are making. That is what we will talk about today.

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Different Ways to Be a Passive Investor

May 22, 2018

After last week’s series about how I invest, a reader raised an excellent point with respect to passive investing. With all of the flows into passive strategies—pushing many stocks higher without regard to their individual merits—is it a safe time to go passive?

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Monday Update: Growth Rebound Continues

May 21, 2018

Last week's economic news was all about whether there are signs of a rebound after a weak first quarter. This week will be a slow one, but the releases we will see are important.

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How I Plan to Invest

May 18, 2018

After going through my investment thought processes over the past couple of days, today I am going to outline—in general—what I actually plan to do with my excess cash. So, let’s revisit some of the ideas we’ve talked about this week.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, May 17, 2018 [Video]

May 18, 2018

On Thursday, I appeared on CNBC's Power Lunch to discuss the current state of the market, rising rates, and investor skepticism. Overall, things are good, so how much better can they get? Listen in to learn more.

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Where Can We Beat the Market?

May 17, 2018

We closed yesterday’s post on whether markets are efficient with the conclusion that it could be possible to beat the market. But, to do so, we would need either better information or to view things differently—specifically referencing time horizons as one way to do that. Let’s start with a couple of areas where better information is a real possibility. Then, we’ll take a deeper look at the second idea, which is both more subtle and more interesting.

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Are Markets Efficient?

May 16, 2018

We closed yesterday’s post on how to invest with the question of whether markets were efficient—and what that would mean for how we invest. A foundational assumption of most investment theories is that markets are efficient, which is to say that all information is reflected in an asset’s price. If this holds true, then it shouldn’t be possible to beat the market because—by definition—everything that could affect prices is already accounted for.

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Thoughts on How to Invest

May 15, 2018

Given what I do all day, you might imagine I have this investing thing all figured out. In fact, I probably wrestle with it more than most people. Part of what I do is think about many different types of investments and strategies. With all of those options in my head, it can be hard to make decisions about what is best, for me, at any given time and situation. Right now, for instance, I am in the process of putting what is (for me) a largish amount of cash to work. Do I buy in, despite my concerns about valuations? Do I wait and forgo any interim returns? If I decide to buy in, what should I buy?

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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