There were a number of important economic updates released last week, as we kicked off the second half of the year. The most notable release was June's employment report, which came in much better than anticipated. This will be a relatively quiet week on the economic update front, with a focus on the Fed and inflation. 

Growth has been solid this year. Consumers remain confident, and business continues to hire and invest. Indeed, markets have responded to these positive conditions, as they are once again close to new highs. If the economy continues to grow and the fundamentals remain solid, which is likely, we should continue to see more progress in the markets.

Happy Independence Day! Independence Day is actually one of my favorite science fiction B movies. It gave me one of my best laugh lines for speeches: “You remember the movie Independence Day—it started with aliens destroying Washington, DC. Later on, though, it turned out they were hostile.”

Last week saw the release of a number of important economic updates, as we wrapped up the end of the second quarter. Both major measures of consumer confidence declined month-over-month in June, but personal income and spending growth both remained healthy. This week will also see the release of a number of important economic reports, even with the federal holiday on Thursday.

June was a great month for markets around the world, capping off a strong second quarter. With so many worries about slowing growth, earnings, geopolitics, and trade, why are we seeing such strength? The Fed’s more dovish comments at the June meeting had a lot to do with pushing markets up. Plus, the economic data—from retail sales to housing—is solid. For all the worry, things are actually pretty good.

There has been a great deal of coverage on slowing growth. Indeed, on this blog we have looked at signs that the recovery may be close to the end. What that means, of course, is that a recession may well be in the cards in the next couple of years. Although we are not there yet, now is a good time to take a closer look at what it could look like. After all, it has been more than 10 years since we last had a recession, and that one was not typical.

“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”

As I kind of expected, some news did hit yesterday while my son and I were fishing that is definitely worth a closer look. The Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence—one of the most underappreciated economic stats there is—dropped from 131.3 in May to 121.5 for June. This result is the lowest level since September 2017.

I spent this morning the way I usually do, reading the newspapers, looking at the economic reports, and scanning the futures markets. Also as usual, I found things to worry about: Consumer confidence, still high by historical standards, dropped more than expected in June, falling to its lowest level in almost two years. New home sales also missed expectations, declining for the second month in a row instead of climbing. The markets are down a bit as I write this . . . So far, so normal.

Last week saw a handful of important economic updates, primarily focused on the housing market. The data was mixed, with disappointing home builder sentiment offset by better-than-expected sales growth. This will be another relatively quiet week on the economic update front, with only a few notable releases scheduled.