I spent this morning the way I usually do, reading the newspapers, looking at the economic reports, and scanning the futures markets. Also as usual, I found things to worry about: Consumer confidence, still high by historical standards, dropped more than expected in June, falling to its lowest level in almost two years. New home sales also missed expectations, declining for the second month in a row instead of climbing. The markets are down a bit as I write this . . . So far, so normal.

Last week saw a handful of important economic updates, primarily focused on the housing market. The data was mixed, with disappointing home builder sentiment offset by better-than-expected sales growth. This will be another relatively quiet week on the economic update front, with only a few notable releases scheduled.

So much for sell in May and go away. The S&P 500 has hit another all-time high and is on track for the best June in more than 60 years (since 1955). New public offerings have exploded, with Beyond Meat and Slack the most recent wunderkinder. Companies are racing to go to the market. They know that with valuations at all-time highs and the risks rising, now is the time to sell at the best price they will likely get.

The market has concluded that the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady, along with the accompanying statement from yesterday's meeting, is unreservedly dovish. The expectation is for two more rate cuts this year, starting in July. Markets are, unsurprisingly, cheering. Lower rates are good for economic growth and for stocks. In fact, that reasoning would explain why the Fed would cut. If the Fed does cut, it will be stimulative and should help sustain the expansion—as intended.

This afternoon, I appeared live in studio on Yahoo Finance’s The Ticker to discuss today's Fed decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Listen in to learn more.

Today’s post will be a brief one as I am on the road. Besides, we don’t yet know how the main event of the day—the Fed meeting—will turn out. Will the Fed cut rates? Drop a strong hint that a rate cut is coming? Or just sit tight? And what will the White House do?

Weeks of worry—about trade, growth, and Europe—knocked markets down. But today we have the reversal. Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), has once again come out in favor of looser monetary policy and lower rates, which cheered markets globally. And this morning, President Trump tweeted that he would be meeting with China’s leader, which further cheered markets. As I write this, the S&P 500 is up by 1 percent and well over 2,900. This level takes us to within 1 percent of a new all-time high.

Last week was full of positive economic surprises, making up for some disappointing data to start the month. This week will be a bit lighter on the economic update front, but there are still a few important releases to know about.

A controversial topic currently exciting economists goes by the name of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). While there are many ways to interpret it (as you can see from its name, it doesn’t actually describe anything), the key tenet is that deficits don’t matter. Governments that control their own currencies, like the U.S., can spend whatever they want simply by printing more money. The controversy doesn’t come from this assertion—it’s a simple fact—but from the different interpretations of what, exactly, this means.

One of the most reliable signals of a pending recession is when, in the jargon, the yield curve inverts. This sounds like a fancy phrase, but it simply means that investors demand to be paid more for a short-term loan than for a long-term one.