--- title: "Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2022" description: The markets may see further losses before a rebound, as we’ve seen with the continued sell-off in May, says Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan. image: https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Monthly-Risk/monthly-update-b.jpg --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) ### ![print this page](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-1376458285-gif/images/print.gif)Print # [Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-may-2022) Posted by [Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai) Find me on: [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [Twitter](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA) This entry was posted on May 12, 2022, 3:57:11 PM and tagged [Market Updates](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/market-updates) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-may-2022#comments-listing) ![market risk](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Monthly-Risk/monthly-update-b.jpg?width=300&name=monthly-update-b.jpg)My colleague [Sam Millette](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/sam-millette), manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Markets dropped in April, reversing the gains from March. The S&P 500 lost 8.72 percent during the month, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 4.82 percent. The Nasdaq Composite saw the largest decline during the month, as the technology-heavy index fell 13.24 percent in April. The sell-off in April is a reminder that risks remain, and they should be monitored going forward. ##### Recession Risk Recessions are strongly associated with market drawdowns, and 8 of 10 bear markets have occurred during recessions. The National Bureau of Economic Research, which declared that a recession started in February 2020 when markets plunged, announced that it ended shortly thereafter. Despite that, and the ongoing expansion since then, economic risks remain. On the whole, the economic recovery continued in April, although uncertainty about the path of the recovery remains. The primary risk is a deeper slowdown in growth and tighter monetary policy from the Fed. Given the uncertainty surrounding inflation and the war news, we have kept the [economic risk level](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-may-2022) at a yellow light for now. Although the most likely path forward is continued economic growth, the lowered confidence is a reminder that the recovery pace is uncertain, and we will likely see setbacks along the way. ##### Economic Shock Risk One major systemic factor is the price of money, otherwise known as interest rates. They drive the economy and financial markets and, historically, have been able to derail them. Rates have been causal factors in previous bear markets and deserve close attention. **Risk factor #1: The yield curve (10-year minus 3-month Treasury rates).** We cover interest rates in the economic update, but they warrant a look here as well. ![market risk](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/mmr_5.12_1.png?width=500&name=mmr_5.12_1.png) The yield curve steepened in April. This result was caused by long-term rates rising faster than short-term rates during the month. The 3-month Treasury yield increased from 0.52 percent at the end of March to 0.85 percent at the end of April. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 2.32 percent at the end of March to 2.89 percent at the end of April. The rise in both short- and long-term yields was primarily due to rising expectations for rate hikes from the Fed throughout the year, due to high levels of consumer and producer inflation. The Fed has hiked the federal funds rate 75 bps so far this year. Economists expect to see the Fed focused on combating inflation in 2022, which could lead to larger and more frequent rate hikes as the central bank tries to normalize monetary policy. While tighter monetary policy could lead to further market volatility, it’s an encouraging signal that the Fed views the economy as healthy enough to endure a faster return to normal. While this normalization process is a good sign for the ongoing economic recovery and could help tamp down high levels of inflationary pressure, rising rates can harm stocks, as we saw to start the year. Given the potential negative impact of rising rates on equities, we have downgraded this indicator to a red light for now. **Signal: Red light** ##### Market Risk Beyond the economy, we can also learn quite a bit by examining the market itself. For our purposes, two things are important: - To recognize which factors signal high risk - To try to determine when those factors signal that the risk has become an immediate—rather than theoretical—concern **Risk factor #1: Valuation levels.** When assessing valuations, we find longer-term metrics (particularly the cyclically adjusted Shiller P/E (CAPE) or price-to-earnings ratio, which looks at average earnings over the past 10 years) to be the most useful in determining overall risk. ![market risk](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/mmr_5.12_2.png?width=500&name=mmr_5.12_2.png) Valuations declined in May, marking six consecutive months with declining valuations. The Shiller CAPE ratio dropped from 34.34 in April to 32.51 in May. This result left the index well below the recent high of 38.58 we saw in November of last year. Even though the Shiller CAPE ratio is a good risk indicator, it is a terrible timing indicator. To get a better sense of immediate risk, let’s turn to the 10-month change in valuations. Looking at changes rather than absolute levels gives a sense of the immediate risk level because turning points often coincide with changes in market trends. ![market risk](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/mmr_5.12_3.png?width=500&name=mmr_5.12_3.png) Above, you can see that when valuations roll over—with the change dropping below zero over a 10-month or 200-day period—the market itself typically drops shortly thereafter. This relationship held at the start of the pandemic, and we’ve seen that play out again to start the year. On a 10-month basis, valuations declined 13.2 percent during the month, following a 6.4 percent decline in April. This now marks six consecutive months with declining 10-month valuations. Given the continued decline in valuations this year and the historically high valuation levels, we have kept this indicator at a red light for now. **Signal: Red light** **Risk factor #2: Margin debt.** Another indicator of potential trouble is margin debt. ![market risk](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/mmr_5.12_4.png?width=500&name=mmr_5.12_4.png) Debt levels, as a percentage of market capitalization, increased notably in 2020 and remained elevated throughout much of 2021. Since then, we’ve seen both absolute and relative margin debt largely decline from the recent highs in late 2021. Margin debt declined notably in March on both a relative and absolute basis. Despite the recent declines, the overall level of margin debt remains high on a historical basis and largely in line with pre-pandemic levels as a percentage of market capitalization. The high level of debt associated with the market is a risk factor on its own but not necessarily an immediate one. For immediate risk, changes in margin debt over a longer period are a better indicator than the level of that debt. Consistent with this, if we look at the change over time, spikes in debt levels typically precede a drawdown. ![market risk](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/mmr_5.12_5.png?width=500&name=mmr_5.12_5.png) As you can see in the chart above, margin debt as a percentage of market capitalization declined 12.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in March, following an 8.2 percent drop in February. This now marks four consecutive months with declining year-over-year margin debt. Although margin debt as a percentage of market capitalization declined on a year-over-year basis in February, the high absolute level of margin debt is worth monitoring. We have kept this indicator at a yellow light for now, but we may see upgrades in the months ahead if we continue to see margin debt decline on both an absolute and relative basis. **Signal: Yellow light** **Risk factor #3: Technical factors.** A good way to track overall market trends is to review the current level versus recent performance. Two metrics we follow are 200-day and 400-day moving averages. We start to pay attention when a market breaks through its 200-day average, and a breakthrough of the 400-day average often signals further trouble ahead. ![market risk](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/mmr_5.12_6.png?width=500&name=mmr_5.12_6.png) Technical factors for major U.S. equity markets were negative in April. All three major U.S. indices ended the month below their respective 200-day moving averages. This marks three consecutive months with the Nasdaq and DJIA ending the period below trend. The 200-day trend line is an important technical signal that is widely followed by investors, as prolonged breaks above or below could indicate a longer-term shift in investor sentiment for an index. The 400-day trendline is also a reliable indicator of a change in trend, and the S&P 500 ended the month below this trendline as well. While it’s too soon to say that investors have turned negative on U.S. equities based on technicals alone, the continued weakness in April is a concern. Therefore, we have kept this signal as a red light for now. **Signal: Red light** **Risk factor #4: Market complacency.** This is a recently added risk factor that aims to capture a standardized measure of market complacency across time. Complacency can be an uncertain term, so this chart identifies and combines two common ways to measure complacency: valuations and volatility. For the valuation component of the index, we are using the forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. This gives an idea of how much investors are willing to pay for companies based on their anticipated earnings. Typically, when valuations are high, it signals investors are confident and potentially complacent. For volatility, we have used the monthly average level for the VIX, a stock market volatility index. When volatility for the S&P 500 is high, the VIX rises, which would signal less complacency. By combining the two metrics in the chart below, we see periods where high valuations and low volatility have caused peaks, such as 2000, 2006–2007, and 2017. We saw market drawdowns within roughly one year following each of these peaks. ![market risk](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/mmr_5.12_7.png?width=500&name=mmr_5.12_7.png) *Source: Haver Analytics, FactSet* Looking at the current chart, market complacency remained unchanged in April for the third consecutive month. The average VIX reading fell from 26.97 in March to 24.37 in April. The forward-looking P/E ratio for the S&P 500 also declined during the month, falling from 19.5 in March to 17.6 in April. The combination of declining volatility and valuations offset each other and kept the overall index unchanged in April at 0.72, which ties the lowest level for the index since October 2020. Historically, readings exceeding 1.2 have been a signal that market complacency may be at concerning levels. The result for the index in April is a sign that complacency continued to remain outside the potential danger zone we hit in October 2021. Given the unchanged result for the indicator in April, we have left this signal at a green light. **Signal: Green light** ##### Conclusion: Markets Face Notable Risks The market sell-off in April was another reminder that markets currently face very real risks that should be noted and monitored. Inflation and interest rates will continue to drive uncertainty for investors in the months ahead and could cause future short-term declines. The rising geopolitical risks from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the increased lockdown measures in China also add uncertainty for markets. That said, we may see risks start to diminish and markets start to rebound in the months ahead. But at this point, the risks remain high, and markets may see further losses before a rebound, as we’ve seen with the continued sell-off in May. Ultimately, the path back to a more normal economic and market environment will likely be long, and we can expect setbacks along the way. Given the fact that many of the indicators we track in this update have dropped to red, we have kept the overall market risk level at a red light for now. ![red\_light](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2020/red_light.jpg?width=300&name=red_light.jpg) - [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLK7toeOaCpmEmCtduPNLBec%2F3dGWfNAZdAFWUwyUdtLPdZ%2BP%2B1W3qpMkQohcUICWbizZXjoQzT84Au7M1cwesI2ja7%2F8zZ5GS0rOX%2FJ%2FXriyTcrcGMsiRHhQzAxPRVlX4D%2Bn68ytnVjlkmC0RWbESj3lPdLJZVpU0hP0wy8jA1ORtuldwjrTKF4HRWzLyHQkyATjcKcMqac5tQ%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - [September 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/09) - [August 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/08) - [July 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/07) - [June 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/06) - [May 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/05) - [April 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/04) - [March 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/03) - [February 2026 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/02) - [January 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/01) - [December 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/12) - [November 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/11) - [October 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/10) - [September 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/09) - [August 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/08) - [July 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/07) - [June 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/06) - [May 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/05) - [April 2025 (7)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/04) - [March 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/03) - [February 2025 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/02) - [January 2025 (1)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/01) - [December 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/12) - [November 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/11) - [October 2024 (9)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/10) - [September 2024 (12)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/09) - [August 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/08) - [July 2024 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/07) - [June 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/06) - [May 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/05) - [April 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/04) - [March 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/03) - [February 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/02) - [January 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/01) - [December 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/12) - [November 2023 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/11) - [October 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/10) - [September 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/09) - [August 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/08) - [July 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/07) - [June 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/06) - [May 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/05) - [April 2023 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/04) - [March 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/03) - [February 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/02) - [January 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/01) - [December 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/12) - [November 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/11) - [October 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/10) - [September 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/09) - [August 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/08) - [July 2022 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/07) - [June 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/06) - [May 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/05) - [April 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/04) - [March 2022 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/03) - [February 2022 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/02) - [January 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/01) - [December 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/12) - [November 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/11) - [October 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/10) - [September 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/09) - [August 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/08) - [July 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/07) - [June 2021 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/06) - [May 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/05) - [April 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/04) - [March 2021 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/03) - [February 2021 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/02) - [January 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/01) - [December 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/12) - [November 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/11) - [October 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/10) - [September 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/09) - [August 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/08) - [July 2020 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/07) - [June 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/06) - [May 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/05) - [April 2020 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/04) - [March 2020 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/03) - [February 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/02) - [January 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/01) - [December 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/12) - [November 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/11) - [October 2019 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/10) - [September 2019 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/09) - [August 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/08) - [July 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/07) - [June 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/06) - [May 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/05) - [April 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/04) - [March 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/03) - [February 2019 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/02) - [January 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/01) - [December 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/12) - [November 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/11) - [October 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/10) - [September 2018 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/09) - [August 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/08) - [July 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/07) - [June 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/06) - [May 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/05) - [April 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/04) - [March 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/03) - [February 2018 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/02) - [January 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/01) - [December 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/12) - [November 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/11) - [October 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/10) - [September 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/09) - [August 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/08) - [July 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/07) - [June 2017 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/06) - [May 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/05) - [April 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/04) - [March 2017 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/03) - [February 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/02) - [January 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/01) - [December 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/12) - [November 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/11) - [October 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/10) - [September 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/09) - [August 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/08) - [July 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/07) - [June 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/06) - [May 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/05) - [April 2016 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/04) - [March 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/03) - [February 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/02) - [January 2016 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/01) - [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12) - [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11) - [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10) - [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09) - [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08) - [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07) - [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06) - [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05) - [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04) - [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03) - [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02) - [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01) - [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12) - [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11) - [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10) - [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09) - [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08) - [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07) - [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06) - [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05) - [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04) - [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03) - [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02) - [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01) - [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12) - [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11) - [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10) - [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09) - [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08) - [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07) - [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06) - [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05) - [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04) - [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03) - [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02) - [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01) - [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12) - [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11) - [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10) - [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09) - [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08) - [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07) - [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06) see all ### Subscribe - [RSS](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/rss.xml) ### Disclosure The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks. One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings. Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation. Member [FINRA](http://www.FINRA.org), [SIPC](http://www.SIPC.org) Please review our [Terms of Use](https://www.commonwealth.com/terms-of-use).  Commonwealth Financial Network®