--- title: Investor Worries on the Rise—But Is It Time to Panic? description: From a pending recession to the debt ceiling, investor worries are on the rise. But according to Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan, there's no need to panic. image: https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Recession/recession-c.jpg --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) ### ![print this page](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-1376458285-gif/images/print.gif)Print # [Investor Worries on the Rise—But Is It Time to Panic?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/investor-worries-on-the-rise-but-is-it-time-to-panic) Posted by [Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai) Find me on: [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [Twitter](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA) This entry was posted on Jan 20, 2023, 12:55:00 PM and tagged [Commentary](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/investor-worries-on-the-rise-but-is-it-time-to-panic#comments-listing) ![investor worries](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Recession/recession-c.jpg?width=300&height=200&name=recession-c.jpg)I have gotten more than the usual number of worried emails, texts, and calls recently—not only from Commonwealth advisors, driven by the concerns of their clients, but from my clients as well. While I understand most of what’s behind those worries—[the debt ceiling](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-u.s.-hits-the-debt-ceiling-again-now-what), at the moment—what is interesting is that last year, during the bear market, I heard much less in the way of worry. It’s not that people weren’t concerned, but there wasn’t the level of immediate fear that I am hearing right now. ##### The Fear Is Real I suspect that was largely because people get that the stock market goes up and down, and a decline (even a big one) is definitely something to expect. Now, on the other hand, we have what looks like some big shocks pending, in the form of the debt ceiling confrontation and a recession, and this is something we don’t expect to happen. Bear markets occur every couple of years, but economic crises—per the headlines about those shocks—don’t happen that often. In fact, the last one was the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). I suspect that people are thinking of that, and even of the pandemic economic crisis, as a template for what might happen. That, of course, leads to real and justified fear. Yesterday, I laid out the facts and circumstances around the [debt ceiling confrontation](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-u.s.-hits-the-debt-ceiling-again-now-what). I won’t call it a crisis, because it isn’t. But I didn’t directly deal with the kind of fear about a systemic risk and collapse that is very prevalent right now. So, setting the specifics of current worries aside, let’s look at the stability of the system as a whole. ##### Shocks to the System Let’s start by thinking about what it would take to really rock the system. We have only had two of those events in the past couple of decades: the GFC and the pandemic. What made those so bad? First, they were unexpected. For the GFC, no one—and I mean no one—saw how the U.S. housing boom, combined with the interlocking nature of financial obligations, worked against what was in retrospect grossly insufficient capital, to basically shut down the global financial system. For the pandemic, again it was completely unexpected. Nothing like this had happened since 1918, and governments worldwide struggled to figure out what to do. The shutdowns basically shut down the economy as well: the same kind of unexpected shock that we saw in the GFC, with basically the same results. Using these two events as a template, we can therefore come up with a preliminary definition of something that might take us into another systemic crisis. It would have to be unexpected. It would have to be global. And it would have to have the potential to shut down either the economy or the financial system. Absent all three of these factors, we would just have a fairly normal event. This gives us the context to look at the current set of worries. ##### Recession and the Debt Ceiling Let’s start with a recession, which fails the first test. Any recession this year will be the most anticipated in history. The fact that we are even discussing it means the effects have largely already been discounted. Second, let’s look at the debt ceiling. Here, we have some history. The first time it happened, markets were indeed rattled (and I wrote about it quite a bit). The second time, less so. And on to now, when markets are basically ignoring it. We know how it works, we know what to expect, and as I wrote yesterday, we now have the experience to largely look through even the worst case. Both of these are clearly worth watching, but they are not worth panicking about. Beyond that, it is worth thinking more generally about systemic risks. Let’s assume something unexpected happens. By definition, we can’t predict it, but let’s assume. Next, we have to assume that whatever that is puts a significant strain on the financial system. What then? ##### A Robust System In the GFC, what turned a housing crisis into a global banking system crisis was the lack of sufficient capital in the banking system. The good news now is that even if that were to happen again, the financial system is much better capitalized than it was during the GFC, largely due to reforms made to prevent a GFC recurrence. We know those reforms worked, too, as one of the key results of the pandemic was that the financial system was never under serious threat, despite the economic chaos. Even if we do get a shock—and what we are worrying about now won’t give us one—the system is much more robust. Beyond that, governments now have experience with two of those shocks and have learned valuable lessons. So, it is certainly not time to panic. The things we are worrying about now are well known, are relatively small on a systemic level, and even if they occurred would not threaten either the economy or the financial system. They simply don’t fit the systemic crisis requirements. And even if and when something else comes up to combine with them to create a systemic crisis, we are in a much better place now than we were in either of the two previous crises. ##### Keep Calm and Carry On In short, bad things can and will happen. But since our current worries are relatively known and contained, we will just move on through them—as we have always done. - [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights_CTA_IMO_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLLUK4zvmqt0xBmvVBkziDdqteSziGuMIjViYfuQ2LnfHaZZAR1q7xQgskFZQ6Gh0HMqE66QBkkZNzK8x0mudoyzuH%2FfBMfL3Wanuou5vA28QqoKyAF8cF9Oh5xorkjYuZi4nqdiOob1LoUlsCdCmpD9Ko58n6NI86p%2Buvr5n%2FZJ7tJ%2Bz3ojvL4%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - [July 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/07) - [June 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/06) - [May 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/05) - [April 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/04) - [March 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/03) - [February 2026 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/02) - [January 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/01) - [December 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/12) - [November 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/11) - [October 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/10) - [September 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/09) - [August 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/08) - [July 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/07) - [June 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/06) - [May 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/05) - [April 2025 (7)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/04) - [March 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/03) - [February 2025 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/02) - [January 2025 (1)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/01) - [December 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/12) - [November 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/11) - [October 2024 (9)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/10) - [September 2024 (12)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/09) - [August 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/08) - [July 2024 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/07) - [June 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/06) - [May 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/05) - [April 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/04) - [March 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/03) - [February 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/02) - [January 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/01) - [December 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/12) - [November 2023 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/11) - [October 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/10) - [September 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/09) - [August 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/08) - [July 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/07) - [June 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/06) - [May 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/05) - [April 2023 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/04) - [March 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/03) - [February 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/02) - [January 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/01) - [December 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/12) - [November 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/11) - [October 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/10) - [September 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/09) - [August 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/08) - [July 2022 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/07) - [June 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/06) - [May 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/05) - [April 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/04) - [March 2022 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/03) - [February 2022 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/02) - [January 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/01) - [December 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/12) - [November 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/11) - [October 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/10) - [September 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/09) - [August 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/08) - [July 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/07) - [June 2021 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/06) - [May 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/05) - [April 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/04) - [March 2021 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/03) - [February 2021 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/02) - [January 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/01) - [December 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/12) - [November 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/11) - [October 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/10) - [September 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/09) - [August 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/08) - [July 2020 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/07) - [June 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/06) - [May 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/05) - [April 2020 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/04) - [March 2020 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/03) - [February 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/02) - [January 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/01) - [December 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/12) - [November 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/11) - [October 2019 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/10) - [September 2019 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/09) - [August 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/08) - [July 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/07) - [June 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/06) - [May 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/05) - [April 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/04) - [March 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/03) - [February 2019 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/02) - [January 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/01) - [December 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/12) - [November 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/11) - [October 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/10) - [September 2018 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/09) - [August 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/08) - [July 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/07) - [June 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/06) - [May 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/05) - [April 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/04) - [March 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/03) - [February 2018 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/02) - [January 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/01) - [December 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/12) - [November 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/11) - [October 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/10) - [September 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/09) - [August 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/08) - [July 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/07) - [June 2017 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/06) - [May 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/05) - [April 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/04) - [March 2017 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/03) - [February 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/02) - [January 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/01) - [December 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/12) - [November 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/11) - [October 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/10) - [September 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/09) - [August 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/08) - [July 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/07) - [June 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/06) - [May 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/05) - [April 2016 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/04) - [March 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/03) - [February 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/02) - [January 2016 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/01) - [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12) - [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11) - [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10) - [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09) - [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08) - [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07) - [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06) - [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05) - [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04) - [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03) - [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02) - [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01) - [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12) - [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11) - [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10) - [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09) - [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08) - [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07) - [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06) - [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05) - [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04) - [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03) - [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02) - [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01) - [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12) - [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11) - [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10) - [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09) - [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08) - [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07) - [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06) - [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05) - [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04) - [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03) - [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02) - [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01) - [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12) - [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11) - [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10) - [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09) - [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08) - [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07) - [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06) see all ### Subscribe - [RSS](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/rss.xml) ### Disclosure The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks. One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings. Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation. Member [FINRA](http://www.FINRA.org), [SIPC](http://www.SIPC.org) Please review our [Terms of Use](https://www.commonwealth.com/terms-of-use).  Commonwealth Financial Network® ![](https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=1808440502705240&ev=PageView&noscript=1)