The Independent Market Observer

Rob Swanke, CFA®, CAIA

Rob Swanke is a senior investment research analyst on the Equity Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network®, member FINRA/SIPC, the nation's largest privately held Registered Investment Adviser–independent broker/dealer. With the firm since 2012, he is responsible for overseeing the mid-cap equity section of the firm's recommended list of mutual funds, individual equity analysis, and equity portfolio reviews. Rob graduated from Boston College, where he concentrated in finance and accounting. He is a CFA® and CAIA charterholder.

Recent Posts

Q3 2024 Earnings: Santa Delivered, but Markets Expect More in 2025

December 12, 2024

When kids are young, they don’t ask for much—maybe a toy car or a new puzzle will keep them happy. But as they get older, the requests always seem to get bigger. Those toys and puzzles become more complicated video games, LEGO, or designer clothes and are invariably something we, the adults, never had as kids.

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Q3 2024 Earnings Season Preview: Magnificent 7 Feeling the Pressure?

October 10, 2024

Anyone past a certain age knows how much easier it was to do things when they were younger. You could stay up all night to finish a project, play a pickup basketball game without stretching, and eat or drink whatever you wanted without many consequences. As we get older, though, we start to see the effects of our poor decisions but also gain the experience that can help guide us.

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Q2 2024 Earnings Season Review: Beating Expectations Isn’t Enough

September 10, 2024

If you entered this NFL season as a Kansas City Chiefs fan, you’re probably hoping for a Super Bowl win after clinching three of the past five Super Bowls and having Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback and Taylor Swift backing the team. (As a Patriots fan, I remember that feeling.) Similarly, after the S&P 500 beat earnings estimates for several quarters, investors aren’t just hoping to beat earnings. They are looking for both a beat and better guidance going forward. Investors had to settle for just one of those in the second quarter.

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Q2 2024 Earnings Season Preview: Time to Show Me the Money!

July 11, 2024

Anyone familiar with the movie Jerry Maguire knows the phrase, “Show me the money!” Well, after several quarters of beating low expectations, it’s time for companies in the S&P 500 to show us the money and put up solid earnings growth. Analysts expect earnings growth of 8.8 percent as of July 3, 2024, which would be the highest growth rate since Q1 2022 when it was 9.4 percent.

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2024 Midyear Outlook: The Tug-of-War Between Earnings Growth and Valuations

July 10, 2024

The story of 2023 was the recession that never was and the end of the interest rate hiking cycle. Corporate earnings growth beat expectations, and the S&P 500 saw a 26 percent return. And in the first half of 2024, that upward trajectory largely continued. Large-cap stocks have led the way, while mid- and small-caps have lagged. Value stocks have underperformed growth stocks, with higher earnings growth for growth stocks keeping them in the lead. 

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Q1 2024 Earnings Season Review: Building Expectations

June 4, 2024

When a Cinderella story comes out of nowhere to win a championship, fans are ecstatic (just like I was watching Tom Brady win his first Super Bowl against the heavily favored Rams). But once teams have experienced success, the bar will continue to rise—and teams must also rise to meet the next challenge.

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Q1 2024 Earnings Season Kickoff: The Unofficial Start to Spring

April 9, 2024

Living in New England, the weather can be inconsistent—so I never really trust that warm days could be here to stay until the second week of April. Watching the Masters this Thursday and seeing the beautifully manicured greens and blooming azaleas will get me excited for golf season (even if the grass isn’t as green up here and the weather is still in the 40s). But along with the start of spring and golf season, we also get ready to kick off the earnings season.

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Q4 2023 Earnings: The Winter Thaw Has Begun

March 12, 2024

I love spending time outdoors—except when it’s 20 degrees outside. For me, winter in Boston is a time to focus on self-improvement, whether that’s working on fitness goals or taking a class, so I can enjoy the warm weather when it finally arrives. Still, the winter can seem very long, as did 2022 and 2023 for many businesses. Companies saw margins contract, sought to lower their debt loads as rates rose, and made efforts to right-size their businesses for what seemed like an oncoming recession.

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Q4 2023 Earnings Preview: A Glass Half-Full for 2024?

January 11, 2024

Making New Year’s resolutions usually involves some level of reflection on how to be a better person and the possibilities ahead. You might write down your goals for the future, while also looking back on your accomplishments (and failures). In doing so, you may find growth where you didn’t expect it, even if it comes in the form of small wins toward your bigger goals.

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Q3 2023 Earnings: A Little Taste of Everything This Thanksgiving

November 21, 2023

Everyone has their Thanksgiving favorites, whether that’s the turkey, the mashed potatoes, the stuffing, or the gravy. For me, it’s the pie—blueberry with my mom’s homemade whipped cream.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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