Living in New England, the weather can be inconsistent—so I never really trust that warm days could be here to stay until the second week of April. Watching the Masters this Thursday and seeing the beautifully manicured greens and blooming azaleas will get me excited for golf season (even if the grass isn’t as green up here and the weather is still in the 40s). But along with the start of spring and golf season, we also get ready to kick off the earnings season.

I love spending time outdoors—except when it’s 20 degrees outside. For me, winter in Boston is a time to focus on self-improvement, whether that’s working on fitness goals or taking a class, so I can enjoy the warm weather when it finally arrives. Still, the winter can seem very long, as did 2022 and 2023 for many businesses. Companies saw margins contract, sought to lower their debt loads as rates rose, and made efforts to right-size their businesses for what seemed like an oncoming recession.

Making New Year’s resolutions usually involves some level of reflection on how to be a better person and the possibilities ahead. You might write down your goals for the future, while also looking back on your accomplishments (and failures). In doing so, you may find growth where you didn’t expect it, even if it comes in the form of small wins toward your bigger goals.

Everyone has their Thanksgiving favorites, whether that’s the turkey, the mashed potatoes, the stuffing, or the gravy. For me, it’s the pie—blueberry with my mom’s homemade whipped cream.

Breaking a mirror, walking under a ladder, and a black cat crossing your path have all been seen as bad omens. Another one is Friday the 13th, which happens to be when the big banks will kick off earnings season. So, should we fear what’s in store?

Over the past few years, many people have been looking for alternatives to the 60/40 portfolio (a portfolio allocation of 60 percent equities/40 percent fixed income)—and for good reason. The Fed’s massive intervention to lower interest rates made the 40 percent allocation to fixed income in the 60/40 portfolio much less attractive. With inflation reaching levels we haven’t seen in decades and the Fed set to push interest rates higher, people have been wondering whether fixed income still provides the protection of principal that many investors are looking for. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index’s worst quarter in more than two decades has certainly increased this concern. This pain, however, has put fixed income in a much healthier position going forward with higher starting yields able to cushion investors from further declines in price.

Throughout the pandemic, we’ve seen a large-scale exercise in risk assessment. Both governments and individuals have had to make a number of risk assessments, weighing the cost and benefits of different actions without definitive information. Investors are making investment decisions based on risk as well, as no one can be a perfect forecaster. So, to the extent we can, we must not only be conscious of the uncertainty of our investment returns but also of the risk that we will make poor choices when faced with different results, both good and bad.

Today’s post is from Rob Swanke, senior fixed income analyst on our Investment Management and Research team.

The 10-year Treasury yield has been climbing steadily since hitting a low of 0.5 percent in August 2020. This week, as of April 20, it was close to 1.56 percent. But the rise in rates hasn’t been equal across the broad spectrum of fixed income instruments. If you’re an investor who hasn’t made any changes to your fixed income portfolio since last August, it’s likely your exposures have changed. As a result, your investments may not be delivering the benefits you’re looking for. To assess the situation, take a look under the hood at your fixed income portfolio. But first you need to understand what current interest rates are telling us—and how inflation is involved.

Today’s post comes to you from Rob Swanke, fixed income analyst on our Investment Management and Research team.