As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP. Our collective spending has powered the economy since the COVID-19 pandemic and proven wrong the 2022 and 2023 recession predictions by economists and investors. I like to call it the most telegraphed recession that never happened.
February 4, 2025
Brad here. As many of you know, I have been working on a much wider range of things here at Commonwealth, and as such, I have stepped back from a lot of the public-facing work I was doing. And that was fine as long as everything was going well. But when things become uncertain, we need someone to be able to explain what is happening—and why.
November 6, 2024
From beginning to end, the 2024 election cycle will be looked back on as historic. It was hard fought and contentious on both sides. But at the end of the day, polls and political pundits don’t decide elections—voters do.
October 24, 2024
“The wind is rising, and the air is wild with leaves. We have had our summer evenings; now for October eves!”
— Humbert Wolfe
September 25, 2024
“Sometimes the questions are complicated, and the answers are simple.”
— Dr. Seuss
July 19, 2024
“Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.”
— Ferris Bueller
Recently, inflation and interest rates have dominated the headlines. And for good reason—they are known market and economic risks. But as we look toward the second half of 2024, investors must also be prepared to navigate the geopolitical risks, whose twists and turns can often lead into uncharted territory.
June 20, 2024
As the fears about Y2K dissipated and the dot-com boom entered its last few months, the world’s equity investment opportunity set was split roughly 50 percent in the U.S. and 50 percent in the rest of the world. Fast-forward to today, and approximately 64 percent of global market capitalization is in the U.S. This shift has resulted from the U.S. equity market’s outperformance since the end of the great financial crisis more than a decade ago.
In our team meetings, we often discuss the shifting sands of the market. Not only is it an interesting topic, but it poses a challenge for asset allocators. We are in the midst of a multi-year outperformance cycle for large-cap growth. The companies that have driven this outperformance have all become household names: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla. The top 10 names in the S&P 500 account for roughly 32 percent of the index compared to the average since 1990 of 20 percent. During the dot-com boom, the top 10 weightings peaked at 25 percent.
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