With politics heating up again—and the news from Washington driving scary headlines—I am getting more questions about what that turmoil could mean for the market. Will politics derail it? Will confidence be shaken? Should we be worried?
September 27, 2018
With politics heating up again—and the news from Washington driving scary headlines—I am getting more questions about what that turmoil could mean for the market. Will politics derail it? Will confidence be shaken? Should we be worried?
September 26, 2018
It was September 29, 2008, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered what is now its second-largest point decline ever: it dropped 777.68 points during the day, after Congress’s rejection of the bank bailout bill. (Nearly 10 years later—on February 5, 2018—it closed down 1,175.21 points.) As bad as these declines were, however, they don't win the prize for the worst day ever in percentage terms. That would be October 19, 1987 (i.e., Black Monday), when the Dow lost 22.6 percent of its value. If we translate that into 2008 terms, the equivalent loss would be more than 2,500 points—or more than three times worse than the 2008 decline.
September 25, 2018
Today, the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (the FOMC or Fed) starts. It will conclude tomorrow with an announcement about interest rates, followed by a press conference. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates by one-quarter of a percentage point. This rise is fully priced into the market, which also expects an increase in December. So far, so good. These increases reflect continued economic growth and the rise in inflation to a more normal level, closer to Fed targets. In fact, the Fed raising rates is a sign of success, and failure to raise rates would cause much more concern than the expected increase.
September 24, 2018
Last week’s economic data was all about housing, but the week ahead will be a busy one. It will give us a solid look at the consumer’s thoughts and actions, as well as business activity and housing data.
September 21, 2018
I should go away more often. While I was on the road, the market hit new highs and looks set to go even higher. This move is kind of a surprise, given the extensive discussion of the trade war, the political turmoil in Washington, the worries about the emerging markets, and on and on. What’s happening, and is it likely to last?
September 20, 2018
I am sitting in an airport writing this after a speaking trip—and running behind schedule—so this will be a short post. First, thanks to everyone who wrote in to congratulate me on my book, Crash-Test Investing. It is much appreciated. Second, thanks even more to those of you who bought the book—especially Mom and Dad! It is a great start to the publishing adventure.
September 19, 2018
I am very pleased to announce that my book, Crash-Test Investing, is finally available for sale on Amazon. Right now, only the paperback version is available, but we are working on the Kindle version. You should buy a copy for every room in your house, all your friends and family, and all the rooms in their houses. Go ahead—I’ll wait! Unless you’re a Commonwealth advisor, in which case you’ll be getting a copy at our National Conference.
Before doing that, however, you might ask yourself these questions: Why do we need another book on investing? And what do I have to offer that made it worth my time to write?
September 17, 2018
Last week’s data started with prices and whether inflation was picking up. This week’s economic data is all about housing.
September 14, 2018
You know the old saying: hindsight is 20/20. Apparently, foresight is as well because I have recently seen several prominent economists and investors calling for a recession in 2020. Repent, the end is near—but not all that near.
September 13, 2018
There has been much discussion recently about how the great financial crisis kicked off 10 years ago this week. We have retrospective interviews with participants, updates on how people fared during and after the crisis, and all of the typical media storytelling. It’s good stuff, and valuable for bringing a sense of perspective to the present moment. But it’s not all that useful in outlining what we should really be thinking of today in light of that history.
The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.
Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.
The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.
One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.
The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.
The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.
Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.
Member FINRA, SIPC
Please review our Terms of Use.
Commonwealth Financial Network®