A lot has changed in the past week. I normally try and get this post up earlier in the month, but with everything that has happened—and which has demanded comment—this is the earliest I could fit it in. But that is a good thing, as the ”looking forward” piece is now going to be rather different than it would have been last week. So, let’s take a look back and then forward, and try and figure out where we are going in the next couple of weeks.

The most important economic report—the jobs report—came out this morning, and it was surprisingly strong. This strength was not so much in the headline number, but in the details. Let’s start out with the headlines and drill down to what this report means for the economy going forward, especially in light of the ongoing pandemic.

The big news this week was the election. Although the outcome remains unresolved, the fact that the election itself went without a hitch has substantially reduced the perceived political risks. While we still have weeks or possibly months of litigation ahead, the worst risks are now off the table. Markets have been cheering this shift over the past two days.

“It will take as long as it takes,” a reported quote from the Pennsylvania attorney general about the vote count, can also apply to the election itself. Indeed, from where we stand right now, the Pennsylvania vote count will determine the election. We don’t know what the final answer is, and we don’t know when we will know. So, are we any further along than yesterday?

October was a tough month for the markets. They started out strong but rolled over on rising medical risks. Fortunately, the impact was cushioned by better economic news.

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, the third wave of the pandemic has accelerated around the country. With new cases at all-time highs and the geographic spread continuing to widen, this is something we need to watch.

Once again, the medical news worsened since the last update, as the third wave of infections has continued to accelerate around the country. Case growth is now at new highs, above the prior peaks in July, while the geographic spread of this wave of outbreaks continues to widen. Case growth in many states is now at levels that threaten the health care systems there, indicating this is a growing problem.

Today, we have another down day in the markets, as the pandemic continues to worsen. So, is it time to worry about the markets again? Let’s take a closer look.

We are in the midst of a rising third wave of the pandemic, as well as facing multiple other issues (the election, the wildfires, and so on). But the economy continues to move forward. Consumer confidence is steady, personal spending is doing well, and business confidence and investment are strong. Even after the initial fiscal and unemployment support, the economy has continued to expand despite rising medical risks. Given all this, maybe it is time to take another look at where the risks are and whether they are as big as has been commonly assumed.

We have had a roller-coaster ride in 2020 so far, and the rest of the year looks to be no easier—and probably just as hard. The election is coming up, the third wave of the virus is underway, large parts of the country are on fire, and a record-setting hurricane season is in progress. And that’s just in the U.S. Looking abroad, at least two things—Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war—would be making bigger headlines here in any other year. There is a lot to pay attention to, a lot to worry about, and a lot that could go wrong. With everything in play, we need to remember to do something critical.