Newspaper reporters (and bloggers!) are breathing a sigh of relief as the new Congress gets closer. Just as the economic worries are subsiding—at least here in the U.S.—political risks can move back to the front page. As someone who writes a blog post every day, all I can say is thank goodness.

As a citizen, though, I am somewhat (but not yet very) concerned.

On December 4, I joined John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics, for an interview on Fox Business. The discussion centered on which global markets may be best for investing in 2015, and why I think the greatest risks to the stock markets will come in the first quarter. 

There's been some trepidation recently about the November jobs report. Amid signs of weakness, pullbacks on various stats, and problems in the rest of the world, most forecasters were backing off on their earlier estimates, just in case.

They should have doubled down.

I recently took a look at housing for the first time in six months or so, and I thought it was time to examine the stock market in similar fashion to see where we are.

In my market commentaries and videos, I have continued to discuss the positive trends and healthy fundamentals—which are very real—but we also need to consider the broader context. The following three indicators paint a somewhat cautionary picture.  

One of the fundamental principles of economics is “rationality”—the notion that all actors in a market have similar information, preferences, and abilities to project the future.

Like all economists, I know this isn’t really true, yet it still influences how I view the world. So the extent to which Daniel Kahneman proves this idea false—not just at the aggregate level, but at the individual level—comes as something of a shock.

The news is in: Black Friday was a bust. Sales over the Thanksgiving weekend were down 11 percent, with 6 million fewer shoppers this year than last.Sounds like a pretty bleak Christmas, no?

In fact, Black Friday—so named because it’s when retailers get as much as 40 percent of their annual sales, moving from the red into the black—may not be the best bellwether of the holiday shopping season. While lackluster sales aren’t necessarily a good sign, they also don’t spell doom for holiday spending.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I provide an update on U.S. economic growth and explain how a sluggish Japan and Europe factor into the recovery. You'll also hear my thoughts on holiday consumer spending.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in almost all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

As we enter the month of December, the economic forecast remains encouraging.

We talked the other day about the power of compounding and how it can be used to help determine whether trends are sustainable. The idea is that the compounded returns will at some point run into a limit that can’t be surpassed.

It sounds simple, but the idea of limits actually isn’t so clear. In many cases, the real issue isn’t a physical limit, but an economic and technological one.

We interrupt this broadcast to bring you important news: the U.S. economy is still growing—and faster than many expected.

I hesitate to highlight this, as I fear I'm starting to come off as a perennial optimist, even a cheerleader, for the economy. But it’s important to consult the data, good and bad alike, and there have been plenty of positive developments lately.