The Independent Market Observer

Economic Release Snapshot: Business Confidence Slips in March

Posted by Sam Millette

This entry was posted on Apr 10, 2023 10:01:50 AM

and tagged In the News

Leave a comment

Monday UpdateEach week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of April 3

ISM Manufacturing, March (Monday)

  • Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 47.5/47.7
  • Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 46.3

Manufacturer confidence fell more than expected in March, driven, in part, by declines in new orders and supply deliveries. This result left the index in contractionary territory, signaling a potential slowdown for the manufacturing industry.

International trade report, February (Wednesday)

  • Expected/prior trade deficit: –$68.8 billion/–$68.7 billion
  • Actual trade deficit: –$70.5 billion

The trade deficit widened slightly more than expected in February as imports fell 1.5 percent and exports dropped 2.7 percent. While February's trade gap was the largest in four months, it remains well above the record levels we saw in early 2022.

ISM Services, March (Wednesday)

  • Expected/prior ISM Services index: 54.4/55.1
  • Actual ISM Services index: 51.2

Service sector confidence fell more than expected in March; however, the index still sits in expansionary territory despite the decline. A drop in demand primarily drove the drop in service sector confidence, as new orders and business activity slowed in March.

Employment report, March (Friday)

  • Expected/prior monthly job growth: 230,000/326,000
  • Actual monthly job growth: 236,000
  • Expected/prior unemployment rate: 3.6%/3.6%
  • Actual unemployment rate: 3.5%

The March employment report showed that hiring remained strong, and more jobs than expected were added during the month. The unemployment rate also fell and remains near post-pandemic lows.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of April 10

Consumer Price Index, February (Wednesday)

Headline consumer inflation is expected to slow on a year-over-year basis from 6 percent in February to 5.2 percent in March. If estimates hold, this will mark the lowest level of headline consumer inflation since May 2021.

FOMC meeting minutes, March (Wednesday)

The minutes from the Fed’s March meeting will be released on Wednesday. Economists and investors will closely examine the meeting minutes for hints on the future path of monetary policy.

Producer Price Index, March (Thursday)

Headline and core producer inflation are set to slow in March, with economists calling for no change in headline prices following a modest decline in February.

Retail sales, March (Friday)

Headline and core retail sales are set to decline in March, which could result in two consecutive months of declining sales if estimates hold.

Industrial production, March (Friday)

Industrial production is expected to grow modestly in March following a flat February.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, April, preliminary (Friday)

The first estimate of consumer sentiment in April is expected to show a modest uptick in confidence, which would be a good sign for future consumer spending growth.


Subscribe via Email

Crash-Test Investing

Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Conversations

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®