---
title: "An Economic Forecast: The Jobs Report, Tariffs, and Bear Stearns"
description: Is the economy in for stormy weather ahead? Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan says while current conditions are good, there are risks on the horizon.
image: https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/USeconomy_10.jpg
---

[![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer)

[![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/)

- [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer)
- [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/)

### ![print this page](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-1376458285-gif/images/print.gif)Print

# [An Economic Forecast: The Jobs Report, Tariffs, and Bear Stearns](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/an-economic-forecast-the-jobs-report-tariffs-and-bear-stearns)

Posted by [Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai)

Find me on:

[LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [Twitter](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA)

This entry was posted on  Mar 8, 2018, 3:19:40 PM

 and tagged [Commentary](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary) 

[Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/an-economic-forecast-the-jobs-report-tariffs-and-bear-stearns#comments-listing)

![economic forecast](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/USeconomy_10.jpg?width=300&name=USeconomy_10.jpg "economic forecast")I woke up this morning to a surprise. It had snowed, which was expected. After all the fear-mongering coverage, in fact, I expected the house to be covered, but it wasn’t so bad. The real surprise was the fact that a combination of wind and heavy snow had taken down several trees—including an 18-footer right across most of my driveway. All of a sudden, I was cut off.

##### Calm before the storm?

There was no suggestion yesterday that this would happen, as the weather was clear. Sure, we knew the snowstorm was coming, but here in New England, snowstorms are usually no big deal. Towns have the equipment, training, and expertise to deal with them quickly and efficiently. Conditions yesterday were good, so the tree across my driveway was a big surprise. On the roads in to work, I saw many more trees down, including along major roads where you simply don’t see that sort of thing. Clearly, the towns were taken by surprise as well, despite all that experience and preparation.

As I eventually drove in (after clearing the tree from my driveway with hand tools and swerving to avoid the trees on the road), it occurred to me that this was a pretty good extended metaphor for where we find ourselves today. With the jobs report expected to come in very strong tomorrow and with confidence high for both consumers and business, people feel good and see no real troubles ahead. The market remains close to all-time highs. The sense is that while there are indeed potential problems headed our way, they won’t really be that bad—and that we have the tools, the training, and the expertise to deal with them efficiently. In other words, the economic and investment consensus is much like how I felt about the weather yesterday.

##### Tariffs: Unsettled weather ahead?

There is even a pending storm out there to make the metaphor complete: the tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are scheduled to be announced this afternoon. Yes, the narrative goes, this will be a problem, but it is one that can be dealt with. Surely it won’t be that bad, right?

In the sense of this snowstorm, where the snow was actually not the problem, the tariffs might well not be a problem either. They will certainly raise costs for companies that use steel or aluminum, which is pretty much every manufacturer, but that could be dealt with. What will cause trouble? The downed trees and power lines, which no one can predict. Driving past and under trees along the road to work, I don’t know what the economic equivalent would be, and I am not eager to find out.

I did make it into work today. So, while there were unexpected risks from the storm, they weren’t that bad—and that could end up happening with the tariffs. Recent history, however, shows there is real potential for a much worse outcome.

##### Past storms: Bear Stearns

It was almost 10 years ago (Tuesday, March 13, 2008) that Bear Stearns collapsed, initiating the great financial crisis of 2008–2009. Well-intended policy decisions, in this case involving the accounting treatment of assets—combined with an extended economic and financial environment—detonated a crisis that we are still recovering from 10 years later. While the financial environment is much more secure now, and the economy is not as extended, we are at the end of a bull run for growth and stocks that is similar to then. The potential for small changes—and the tariffs are a large change—to have disproportionate and unexpected effects is very real.

##### Extended forecast

To be clear, I don’t expect—and am certainly not predicting—another 2008. What I am saying is that the present good conditions don’t reduce the risks here; they increase them. We will be watching closely to see how this plays out.

- [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share)

### Subscribe via Email

![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar")

[Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
June 17, 2026

[Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
May 13, 2026

[Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
April 15, 2026

[Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
March 18, 2026

[Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
February 11, 2026

<https://news.yahoo.com/stocks-halt-rout-dollar-down-200241022.html>[More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements)

[![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLKPKUNh9x0ITMKXGMIYmKyVmFI8Vf4sO7KjOA85RdjY6yGXVHhaGp6ILZSDgOg8fSyDbu57z6196JnF52hvdW8LZb8NtuFU3hubIFx8Qx7tdfkx1kq63c58OwBZQxkcZujmcVKE29lF660Jin%2FjCDFzubrP5BB8VOkjFLNTg80DodbjO77zSPIGi8tmSEn7jTOfRE1vCF%2FyfoA%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024)

### Hot Topics

Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy

[![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf)

### Archives

- [September 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/09)
- [August 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/08)
- [July 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/07)
- [June 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/06)
- [May 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/05)
- [April 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/04)
- [March 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/03)
- [February 2026 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/02)
- [January 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/01)
- [December 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/12)
- [November 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/11)
- [October 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/10)
- [September 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/09)
- [August 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/08)
- [July 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/07)
- [June 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/06)
- [May 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/05)
- [April 2025 (7)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/04)
- [March 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/03)
- [February 2025 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/02)
- [January 2025 (1)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/01)
- [December 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/12)
- [November 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/11)
- [October 2024 (9)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/10)
- [September 2024 (12)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/09)
- [August 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/08)
- [July 2024 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/07)
- [June 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/06)
- [May 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/05)
- [April 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/04)
- [March 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/03)
- [February 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/02)
- [January 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/01)
- [December 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/12)
- [November 2023 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/11)
- [October 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/10)
- [September 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/09)
- [August 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/08)
- [July 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/07)
- [June 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/06)
- [May 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/05)
- [April 2023 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/04)
- [March 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/03)
- [February 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/02)
- [January 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/01)
- [December 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/12)
- [November 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/11)
- [October 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/10)
- [September 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/09)
- [August 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/08)
- [July 2022 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/07)
- [June 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/06)
- [May 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/05)
- [April 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/04)
- [March 2022 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/03)
- [February 2022 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/02)
- [January 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/01)
- [December 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/12)
- [November 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/11)
- [October 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/10)
- [September 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/09)
- [August 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/08)
- [July 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/07)
- [June 2021 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/06)
- [May 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/05)
- [April 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/04)
- [March 2021 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/03)
- [February 2021 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/02)
- [January 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/01)
- [December 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/12)
- [November 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/11)
- [October 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/10)
- [September 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/09)
- [August 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/08)
- [July 2020 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/07)
- [June 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/06)
- [May 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/05)
- [April 2020 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/04)
- [March 2020 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/03)
- [February 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/02)
- [January 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/01)
- [December 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/12)
- [November 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/11)
- [October 2019 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/10)
- [September 2019 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/09)
- [August 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/08)
- [July 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/07)
- [June 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/06)
- [May 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/05)
- [April 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/04)
- [March 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/03)
- [February 2019 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/02)
- [January 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/01)
- [December 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/12)
- [November 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/11)
- [October 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/10)
- [September 2018 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/09)
- [August 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/08)
- [July 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/07)
- [June 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/06)
- [May 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/05)
- [April 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/04)
- [March 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/03)
- [February 2018 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/02)
- [January 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/01)
- [December 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/12)
- [November 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/11)
- [October 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/10)
- [September 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/09)
- [August 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/08)
- [July 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/07)
- [June 2017 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/06)
- [May 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/05)
- [April 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/04)
- [March 2017 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/03)
- [February 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/02)
- [January 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/01)
- [December 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/12)
- [November 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/11)
- [October 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/10)
- [September 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/09)
- [August 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/08)
- [July 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/07)
- [June 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/06)
- [May 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/05)
- [April 2016 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/04)
- [March 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/03)
- [February 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/02)
- [January 2016 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/01)
- [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12)
- [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11)
- [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10)
- [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09)
- [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08)
- [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07)
- [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06)
- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

see all

### Subscribe

- [RSS](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/rss.xml)

### Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member [FINRA](http://www.FINRA.org), [SIPC](http://www.SIPC.org)

Please review our [Terms of Use](https://www.commonwealth.com/terms-of-use).  <http://www.commonwealth.com/termsofuse.html>

Commonwealth Financial Network®

<http://wordpress.com/?ref=footer>