Are We Really Seeing a Slowdown, or Is It More of a “Snowdown”?

October 7, 2015

There has been a lot of talk in the financial media about an economic slowdown, with a sense—explicit in some cases—that a recession is a real possibility. Some of that talk, I will admit, has come from me. Given some of the recent bad reports, particularly the jobs report, I do feel that there is a possibility that the trend has changed. After giving it a lot of thought, though, I do not think this is what’s actually happening.

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Appearance on Risk & Reward, October 5, 2015 [Video]

October 7, 2015

Is Wall Street bracing for the worst year since 2008? Watch my interview on Fox Business Network’s Risk & Reward to hear my thoughts on the state of the markets and hedge fund performance. 

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Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2015

October 6, 2015

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead.

We have actually seen some moves worth watching since last month, with signs of slowing, although the overall take remains positive.

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Monday Update: Disappointing News on Employment

October 5, 2015

Although last week started reasonably strong, it ended with a severe disappointment. This Monday update takes a closer look at the economic data.

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Looking for More Market Crash Signals in the Economic Data

October 2, 2015

In yesterday’s post, I reviewed the market data—including valuations, changes in margin debt, and changes in the market cap as a percentage of GDP—for some potential signals of a market crash. All seemed to provide valuable insight but were certainly not definitive. Part of the problem is that these signals can give false alarms or give correct signals that nonetheless result in only minor downturns. So, another set of filters is needed to help refine the analysis.

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Market Thoughts for October 2015 [Video]

October 2, 2015

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss recent declines in U.S. and international markets, spurred by a slowdown in growth and declining consumer confidence. I also provide an update on U.S. economic performance, highlighting an increase in consumer spending.

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Are There Signs of a Potential Market Crash in the Data?

October 1, 2015

In a continuation of my post from yesterday, I am not aware of any single indicator that can tell us when a market crash will occur. (I wish I were!) So, what I have done is reviewed previous significant market downturns and determined some common contributory factors that make sense in theory, as well as empirically.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index.


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