Looking at Future Portfolio Returns

July 28, 2016

The past two days, we’ve considered the likelihood that future returns for bonds and stocks will be disappointing.

Now, we get to the punch line: what does this mean for our own investments? And is there anything we can do about it?

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Looking at Future Stock Returns

July 27, 2016

Yesterday we talked about future bond returns, noting that while bonds have done very well over the past several decades, current conditions suggest their returns over the next 10 years could be significantly lower. Today, we’ll focus on stocks, making the same distinction between returns from income and returns from capital gains.

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Looking at Future Bond Returns

July 26, 2016

You’re probably familiar with the standard investment disclaimer “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” In other words, just because something worked in the past is no reason to assume it will work in the future. This is true: asset classes, in particular, tend to outperform and underperform in regular cycles.

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Monday Update: Housing Continues to Grow

July 25, 2016

Last week’s data came in above expectations, marking the fourth straight week of good news on the economy. Housing starts and sales grew and the industry remained confident, despite some signs of stabilization in the sector.

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How to Spot a Bubble: 2016 Edition

July 22, 2016

It’s been almost a year since I last wrote about investment bubbles. Although there have been ample grounds for discussing the topic, I suspect that other events have seemed more pressing.

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More About Student Debt: A Justified Investment

July 21, 2016

A couple of months ago, I wrote that the student debt problem isn’t as bad as it looks on the surface. I recently found a more up-to-date take on the subject from the White House, which came to the same conclusion.

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Presidential Politics and the Stock Market

July 20, 2016

Now that both parties have nailed down their presidential nominees, it’s time to take a quick look at politics and how it may affect the economy and markets this year. As usual, we’ll focus on the policies that the two candidates have offered and their likely consequences.

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Disclosure

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index.

The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.  

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