What It Would Take to Rig the U.S. Election

October 21, 2016

The headlines this week are all about Donald Trump’s refusal to accept his potential defeat in the U.S. presidential race. He has reserved the right to contest the results of the election, doubling down on his claims that the process is rigged. Although this is the first time the issue has arisen in the presidential forum, claims of data rigging have been quite common in recent years.

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Inflation and Everything Else

October 20, 2016

It’s been a while since I wrote about inflation, the general increase in prices that makes everything cost more. Inflation has been so low recently that it hasn’t really been a priority. Indeed, there’s been more concern about inflation running too low than too high.

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Remembering Black Monday

October 19, 2016

Amazingly enough, after the concern about another Black Monday, the 1987 drop's anniversary today hasn’t generated much media attention. It’s almost like it never happened.

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For Halloween, Some Thoughts on Active Management

October 18, 2016

One of the investment industry’s most famous magazine covers is the August 1979 Businessweek that proclaimed “The Death of Equities”—right before one of the longest and largest bull markets of all time began. It was a perfect example of the investment truism known as the magazine cover effect: when something is widely enough known to be on a magazine cover, it’s already fully priced into the market (and likely about to reverse).

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Monday Update: The Consumer Is Back (Sort Of)

October 17, 2016

Last week’s reports remained modestly positive, although consumer demand showed signs of a slowdown.   

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Is Global Diversification Worth the Risks?

October 14, 2016

After I posted my piece on diversification last week, my colleagues Peter Essele and Anu Gaggar reminded me that they had done a study of some of the trends behind that post. Their analysis highlights a couple detailed examples of what I was talking about. This may be a more technical read, but the conclusions are compelling. Great job, guys! Over to Peter and Anu.

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The Market Today: Shades of 1987?

October 13, 2016

In the past couple of days, three different people have forwarded me an opinion piece that attempts to draw some parallels between the way the market acted in October 1987—before the infamous Black Mondayand the way it’s acting now. Some analysts are actually issuing alerts that we might get a significant pullback.

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Upcoming Appearances

Tune in to CNBC's Power Lunch on Monday, October 24, at 1:15 P.M. ET to hear Brad discuss the markets. Check your local listings for availability.

Tune in to Bloomberg Radio's Taking Stock on Thursday, November 10, at 10:35 A.M. ET to hear Brad talk about the markets with hosts Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz. You can stream the show live at www.bloomberg.com/radio, listen through SiriusXM 119, or download their app.

Tune in to CNBC's Closing Bell on Thursday, November 10, at 3:50 P.M. ET to hear Brad talk about the markets live from the NYSE. Check your local listings for availability.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index.

The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.  


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