Bear Market Ahead?

February 9, 2016

As I’ve said many times lately, I do not believe we’re heading for a repeat of 2008–2009.

A number of factors—a stronger U.S. economy, a less leveraged financial system and consumer, and an absence of imbalances like we saw with housing—suggest that we’re not in for a 2008-style collapse. Although the economy may be entering a slowdown, growth is likely to continue.

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Monday Update: Behind Poor Headline Numbers, More Encouraging News

February 8, 2016

The economy is doing better than last week’s headline numbers would suggest, and we'll find out this week just how much better that is.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2016

February 5, 2016

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. For the third month in a row, the consumer confidence indicator is flashing a yellow light. Despite some improvement last month, the data has declined again, which is worrying.

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Studies in Economic Failure: Japan Edition

February 4, 2016

As always happens in times of uncertainty, the doomsayers are back.

Not that long ago, they were predicting that destructive Federal Reserve policy would lead to the collapse of the economy and the downfall of the dollar. After being proven wrong on those fronts, they’ve returned with a new story: that the drop in oil prices will be the undoing of the U.S. economy.

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Appearance on TV6's The Ryan Report, January 24, 2016 [Video]

February 4, 2016

After speaking recently at the Economic Club of Marquette County, Michigan, I sat down with Don Ryan, host of The Ryan Report, for an in-depth interview on the markets and expectations for 2016.

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Negative on Japan’s Negative Interest Rates

February 3, 2016

One of the most interesting (and surprising) pieces of news on the economics front has been the Bank of Japan’s decision to take rates to negative levels—in other words, to charge depositors to keep their money in the bank. This is not an unprecedented move, as negative rates have been in place for a while in some European countries, but it’s still somewhat unusual.

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Market Thoughts for February 2016 [Video]

February 3, 2016

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss January's dismal market performance, which was the worst we’ve seen since the financial crisis. Why did it happen? Is it likely to get worse? And what can we do about it?

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Upcoming Appearances

Tune in to CNBC's Power Lunch on Wednesday, February 10, at 1:30 P.M. ET to hear Brad discuss the markets. Check your local listings for availability.

Tune in to Fox Business Network’s Varney & Co. on Thursday, February 11, between 9:00 A.M. and 12:00 P.M. ET to hear Brad discuss the markets. Exact interview time will be updated once confirmed. Check your local listings for availability.

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Disclosure

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index.

The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.  

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