3 Lessons from Brexit

June 30, 2016

With all the initial panic over the Brexit vote—and the subsequent relief as markets recovered—it’s been easy to lose sight of the bigger-picture lessons. Here are three that we should keep in mind.

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The Case for Brexit

June 29, 2016

Pretty much all of the coverage of the Brexit vote has been negative, and deservedly so. Even the positive spins have largely focused on how to either reverse the vote or minimize the damage.

When there's this much consensus on something, it’s usually time to take a close look at the other side. So let’s see if we can make a strong case that Brexit is a good thing.

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Appearance on Bloomberg TV, June 28, 2016 [Video]

June 29, 2016

Will the Brexit vote lead to another 2008, as many advisors and investors are wondering, or have we already weathered much of the storm, at least here in the U.S.? I talked about the economic fallout yesterday on Bloomberg TV’s Bloomberg Markets with program anchors David Gura, Vonnie Quinn, and Matt Miller. 

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Will Brexit Crash the Stock Market?

June 28, 2016

After a difficult two days, there’s a serious question on many investors’ minds: Is this the big one, the next crash? It's a reasonable concern. After all, haven’t we been hearing about all the damage Brexit could do? And haven’t we sort of been down this road before, with the Greek crisis in 2011?

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Monday Update: Brexit Raises Economic Risks

June 27, 2016

Last week's economic news fell below expectations across the board. Although housing markets continued to grow, there are potential signs of slowing, and business spending continues to be weak. Of course, the big news of the week—Britain’s decision to leave the EU—will probably exacerbate that weakness, even if it is unlikely to drive the U.S. into a recession.

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Brexit After All

June 24, 2016

I woke up early this morning to check the results of the British referendum on leaving the European Union. Against expectations, the Leave vote won a convincing victory, defying the polls and the prediction markets.

There’s no doubt the world has changed, significantly. There is considerable doubt about what that actually means and—more immediatelywhat to do about it.

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How to Be Wrong: Brexit Edition

June 23, 2016

As an analyst and economist, I spend most of my professional life being wrong, as does everyone else in my field. No one actually expects economic projections to come true consistently; no one has the ability to predict what the market will do.

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Upcoming Appearances

Tune in to CNBC Squawk Box on Tuesday, July 5, at 6:10 A.M. ET to hear Brad talk about the markets and Brexit. Check your local listings for availability.

Tune in to CNBC's Power Lunch on Thursday, July 14, to hear Brad discuss the markets. Exact interview time will be updated once confirmed. Check your local listings for availability.

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Disclosure

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index.

The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.  

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