The Independent Market Observer

Politics in America, Economics in Europe, “Politics” in Asia

September 6, 2012

The big story in the U.S. papers was the Democratic National Convention, and this time, Bill Clinton took his turn in the spotlight. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) led with “Clinton Makes the Case for Obama,” and the New York Times (NYT) went with “Clinton Delivers Stirring Plea for Obama Second Term.” Not sure this counts as news—that the Big Dog is for the Democrat—but whatever.

The real news of the day, in the sense of something that might make a difference, is the announcement of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) plan to support the market for European government bonds. The Financial Times (FT) covered this story in “ECB resists capping bond yields in debt plan,” the NYT in “Fear of More Austerity Fuels Greek Unrest Ahead of Crucial Talks” (p. B1, the front business page), and the WSJ in “Europe Outlook Dims as Bank Meets” (p. A9) and “Moment of Truth for Draghi’s Plan” (p. C12). To get ahead of the news cycle a bit, the actual plan announced by the ECB, which will be in the papers tomorrow, is the most aggressive to date. The bank proposed the open-ended purchase of government bonds at short maturities (up to three years) for countries that are in one of the eurozone economic support facilities. In other words, if countries in trouble are willing to commit to an approved plan to balance their finances, the bank will make sure their interest rates don’t spike.

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At Least Our Politicians Aren’t Europeans

September 5, 2012

The front-page news today is the Democratic National Convention. The Financial Times (FT) leads with “Economy blow in key week for Obama,” which discusses the weak manufacturing report just released in the context of the election. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) leads with “Democrats Rush to Rebut GOP,” and the New York Times (NYT) leads with “First Lady Tops Opening Night for Democrats.” Less meat in those articles, but that is what happened.

Not much else happening today, but there are some good stories looking ahead and some good coverage of things we have discussed in the past. The big pending issue is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting tomorrow, and all three papers hit that. The FT has “All eyes on Draghi over bond proposal” (p. 2), stating correctly that the world will be parsing whatever he says or—possibly more importantly—doesn’t say about the ECB bond buying program. He is widely expected to announce such a program, but the details will matter—a lot. The WSJ did not deal directly with the pending meeting but did hit on a problem the ECB has that we discussed yesterday in “Lending Gaps Challenge Central Bank.” Borrowing costs are getting higher in the peripheral economies, as the euro convergence reverses, making it harder for the ECB to help them and complicating whatever is announced. Finally, we have “European leaders step up talks before policy meeting” in the FT. They have a lot to talk about. Make no mistake: this is a very important meeting for the future of the euro in the near term. Stay tuned.

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Back to Work

September 4, 2012

So, I started off the morning doing the September Market Thoughts video. While prepping for that, I realized how much had actually happened in August, but how little of it got translated into public perception and the markets.

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Celebrate Labor by Not Working

August 31, 2012

Politics made the front pages again, but Isaac got moved back. “Romney Vows to Deliver the Country from Economic Travails” and “A Suitor Makes the Case for Divorce” in the New York Times (NYT) and “Romney Vows to ‘Restore’ US” and “After the Celebrating, the Race Moves to Battleground States” in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) pretty much sum up the political news, while “Storm Weakens But Still is Wreaking Havoc in the South,” (NYT, p. A20) and “Reckoning With Isaac” (WSJ, p. A3) are pretty self-explanatory. The Financial Times (FT) passed on Isaac completely but did have political analysis on page 2, with “Health insurance scheme for elderly rises to top of agenda” and “Parties prepare for tightest of votes in Florida’s bellwether area.” You can see the transition from the convention coverage to the race coverage, from hype to real analysis. Should be a very interesting fall. Once again, I recommend Nate Silver at the NYT as an excellent political analyst.

Europe is the other major meta-story. The deadline is coming near for many European issues, with “Judgment Days Arrive for Euro Crisis” in the WSJ (p. A16) and “Eurozone banks facing sweeping regulation” in the FT (p. 1). In the next two weeks, we have several critical events scheduled in Europe. On September 6, the European Central Bank meets and is widely expected to announce a bond-buying program to support the government bond markets; on September 9, Greece presents its latest attempt at budget cuts; and on September 12, Germany’s constitutional court rules on the legality of the bailout fund and Dutch elections take place, which will probably result in a change of government. I have no doubt I will be hitting all of these issues here in the blog, probably at length.

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Hurricane Ryan Hits Tampa, Hurricane Isaac New Orleans

August 30, 2012

Once again, politics and Isaac are the big stories. Ryan’s acceptance of the vice presidential nomination hit the front pages of the New York Times (NYT) with “Rousing GOP, Ryan Faults ‘Missing’ Leadership” and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) with “Ryan Pledges GOP Rebirth in Accepting Nomination,” but the Financial Times (FT) sat this one out. Lots of political commentary in both papers but not much actual analysis.

The hurricane made all three front pages, with “Isaac tests Louisiana’s defenses seven years after the devastation of Katrina” in the FT, “Storm Drenches Gulf Coast; High Water Cuts Off Many” in the NYT, and “Isaac’s Deluge Rolls Wide” in the WSJ. The basic story is that Isaac is a bad storm, causing extensive damage in some areas, but, overall, it isn’t as bad as it could have been—and certainly not as bad as Katrina. The strengthened defenses in New Orleans seem to have worked, by and large. Best wishes to everyone living through the storm and its aftermath.

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Romney Anointed as Isaac Roars

August 29, 2012

The two lead stories today are no surprise. Romney’s acceptance of the Republican nomination made two of three front pages: “Republicans Anoint Romney” in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and “Romney Secures GOP Nomination After Long Quest” in the New York Times (NYT). The story did not make the Financial Times (FT); the British paper did include election analysis but did not report on the Republican convention.

The second big story today is Hurricane Isaac, which also made two of three front pages—“Hurricane Gains Power and Hits Louisiana Coast” in the NYT and “Obama warns gulf residents not to ‘tempt fate’ as hurricane Isaac nears” in the FT. Isaac only made it to the second page of the WSJ with “Hurricane Isaac Roars Ashore.” Good luck to everyone in Isaac’s path.

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Generic Title: Politics, China, Europe—Rinse and Repeat for Next Three Months

August 22, 2012

With no overarching stories out there, and with the dog days seeming to lie back down for a nap, each of the papers chose a different front page today. The New York Times stayed with politics, as expected, and chose to focus on the “legitimate rape” controversy with “Ignoring Deadline to Quit, GOP Senate Candidate Defies His Party’s Leadership” and “Missouri Controversy May Endanger Republican Chances This Fall,” both on the front page. The stories are pretty much captured in the headlines. The final front pager touches on another story we have been following, “Dispute Over Islands Reflects Japanese Fear of China’s Rise,” which is also pretty self-explanatory. I have said it before and I will say it again—keep an eye on this.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) put Europe on the front page; “Europe Pressures Intensify” focuses on the problems facing Angela Merkel, the head of the German government. Nothing new there—we have known for a long time that the problem wasn’t solved and that there were no easy solutions—but by putting this on the front page, the WSJ is bringing it back into the conversation in a big way. Look for euro risk to make its way back into discussions and into the market as we come closer to September 12, the deadline for the German Constitutional Court ruling on what Germany can do to aid other countries. U.S. politics only made it to page A5, with “Akins Defies His Party’s Pleas to Quit.” Interesting to see the differences between the papers’ treatments and headlines, and that is why we read both.

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No Clever Title Today

August 21, 2012

For the first time in a while, there don’t seem to be meta-stories that can be cleverly (?) tied together. It is beyond me to connect an incredibly stupid comment in Missouri, finally modern membership at Augusta National, and a suspended death sentence in China, not to mention the economic stories. So we will have to take them one by one.

The big story, which made the front pages, is the remark by the GOP Senate candidate from Missouri that “legitimate” rape victims don’t get pregnant, because their bodies prevent it somehow. To the surprise of no one outside the Missouri Republican Party, many took exception to this. The Financial Times (FT) has a photo and paragraph headed “Rape rage,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has “Crucial Senate Race in Uproar,” and the New York Times (NYT) has “GOP Is Pressing Candidate to Quit Over Rape Remark.” This Senate race was considered one of the easiest for Republicans to win and is crucial to their chances to take over the Senate. The papers report that the candidate is being pressured by the party to step down, but as of this morning, he was refusing. Not sure where this story goes, but I find it hard to think of a way that it’s good for the Republicans. I may have to change my bets on the Senate on Intrade.

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Politics as Usual?

August 16, 2012

An interesting mix of stories today. Financial malfeasance makes all of the front pages again. “Bank Deal Rankles Regulators” on page A1 of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) is about how the Standard Chartered settlement with New York State could derail other investigations and has annoyed British regulators. The Financial Times (FT) has “StanChart rallies as settlement welcomed” on page 1 and a follow-up story on page 15, “StanChart pays hefty price for ‘small errors’,” which makes many of the points I did yesterday about the speed of settlement and the magnitude of the fine with respect to what Standard Chartered admitted. The thrust of the article is that the bank was forced to settle quickly, regardless of the merits of the case, because of the effect uncertainty would have on its business and because of a reluctance to go head-to-head with the regulators. I am not so sure, but we will see. My bet is that more problems will show up.

The front page of the New York Times (NYT) has “No Criminal Case is Likely in Loss at Corzine Firm,” about the collapse of MF Global. Two interesting things here: first is the emphasis that, once again, there is no punishment of individuals for business disasters, and second is the personalizing of the story, even to the headline. Again, I would say this is a growing trend; personal accountability will become a much bigger part of the financial industry, especially at the risk end, and rolling heads will become a mandatory part of settlements. Corzine, of course, is still on the hook from both a civil and regulatory perspective—a point the article makes explicitly.

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Dog Days of August

August 14, 2012

The meta-story today is again the Paul Ryan candidacy and the presidential race. The Financial Times (FT) leads with “Obama uses heartland visit to launch first attack on Romney running mate,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) opens with “Presidential Race Snaps Into Gear,” and the New York Times (NYT) has a front-page picture and “Medicare Rises As Voters’ Issue in GOP Gamble.”

Other Ryan stories include “Everything Wall St. Should Know About Ryan” on page B1 of the NYT, which states that he actually may not be very pro-financial industry; “Ryan’s Record Shows Flexibility on Policy” on page A4 of the WSJ, which notes that Ryan voted for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the Bush-era Medicare prescription drug benefit extension, and an early version of the auto bailout; and “Obama tries to harvest votes in Iowa” on page 4 of the FT, which has the subtitle “The president blames Paul Ryan for holding up the farm bill.”

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