After a strong January, markets softened in February. U.S. markets were down by low single digits, international markets dropped, and emerging markets performed worst of all. The primary drivers were the disappointing inflation data and rising longer-term interest rates. Still, job growth exceeded expectations, and service sector business confidence bounced back.

After a tough December, both U.S. and international markets showed gains in January. The primary drivers were the continued drop in inflation and the decline in longer-term interest rates. Despite the market gains, the economy showed signs of slowing, with consumer spending dropping for the second month in a row and a pullback in business confidence and investment.

December closed out a tough year for markets. The U.S. indices showed single-digit declines for the month, capping off drops for the year of about 7 percent for the Dow, more than 18 percent for the S&P 500, and 32 percent for the Nasdaq. The primary drivers were rising inflation and Fed rate increases. Still, job growth remained healthy, and consumer spending and business investment rose.

September was a bad month for markets, which were down between 8 percent and 12 percent for the month both here and abroad. The decline was driven by interest rates, which rose sharply. Despite the market pullback, there was some positive data for the last quarter. Job growth was down but remained strong by historical standards, and both major measures of consumer confidence rose.

After a strong rebound in July, markets pulled back again in August. U.S. and developed international markets ended the month down by 3 percent to 5 percent, and fixed income declined. The primary driver here was rising rates. Higher rates provide for lower stock market values, and with fears of a recession taking down expected earnings, the market had a double whammy. Still, there was good economic news. Job growth beat expectations, and consumer and producer inflation showed signs of peaking.

After a terrible start to 2022, markets rebounded in July. U.S. and developed international markets were up by 5 percent or more, with only emerging markets trailing. The primary driver here was the Fed. It has raised interest rates close to a neutral level, and markets are anticipating the worst of the tightening cycle has passed. But with the U.S. economy contracting for the second quarter in a row, can the rebound continue? Stay tuned to my latest Market Thoughts video to find out.

June was a terrible month, with stock markets in the U.S. and abroad down substantially and developed international markets hit the hardest. The underlying reason? The Fed. With inflation high, the Fed has raised interest rates over the past six months, which has driven the risks of a recession. Still, the economic news is healthy. Companies are hiring, supporting spending growth, and business investment is sound.

Markets started to stabilize in May. The Dow and S&P 500 ended the month with small gains, while the Nasdaq’s loss was small by recent standards. International markets edged up a bit more than U.S. markets, while fixed income showed gains. The primary driver here was interest rates, which showed signs of stabilizing. Further, hiring remained strong, supporting spending growth, and business investment was healthy.