The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for August 2016 [Video]

August 2, 2016

Both domestic and international markets had a strong month of July. Improving fundamentals, including job growth and consumer spending, helped boost investor confidence. Still, as I discuss in this month's Market Thoughts video, economic growth in the first half of the year was disappointing, mainly due to lower levels of spending in the business sector.

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Market Thoughts for July 2016 [Video]

July 1, 2016

June was busy, particularly near month-end. The news that Britain had voted to leave the European Union came as a shock and sent markets tumbling. But then a funny thing happened: the fear dissipated, and as investors started looking at the fundamentals, the markets began to recover. 

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Market Thoughts for June 2016 [Video]

June 3, 2016

After an early pullback, improving economic news helped fuel a rally in U.S. indices at the end of May. While manufacturing remains a concern, improvements in consumer spending and housing have boosted confidence, prompting the Fed to suggest that the economy has normalized. Internationally, political risks continue to be a factor. And any bad news could well rattle the markets. What can we expect moving forward?

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Market Thoughts for May 2016 [Video]

May 2, 2016

Following a strong March, markets suffered a pullback in early April after analysts cut forecasts for first-quarter earnings growth and worries about the economy resurfaced. Though markets recovered, we were left wondering: was the pullback a sign of things to come, or will we see markets continue to move along?

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Market Thoughts for April 2016 [Video]

April 4, 2016

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the markets and economy in March. After two bad months, everything appears to be moving in the right direction, as markets were up about 7 percent across the board, and even foreign markets fared well. 

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Market Thoughts for March 2016 [Video]

March 2, 2016

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the markets and economy in February, which was turning out to be a scary month before a late rally left the market flat. Why did the pullback happen, what caused the recovery, and what does the future hold?

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Market Thoughts for February 2016 [Video]

February 3, 2016

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss January's dismal market performance, which was the worst we’ve seen since the financial crisis. Why did it happen? Is it likely to get worse? And what can we do about it?

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Market Thoughts for January 2016 [Video]

January 6, 2016

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I look back at 2015, which was actually the worst year for the markets since the financial crisis, but a solid year for the ongoing economic recovery.

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Market Thoughts for December 2015 [Video]

December 3, 2015

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I provide an update on the U.S. economy, along with recent global market performance. I also discuss the decline in spending growth that has likely resulted from lower consumer confidence levels.

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Market Thoughts for November 2015 [Video]

November 4, 2015

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss why October turned out to be a great month, despite being preceded by a terrible third quarter. Some highlights include consumer spending, personal income, and external influences on the ongoing recovery.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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