The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for January 2019 [Video]

January 2, 2019

December was another bad month in a string of bad months, with U.S. markets down about 10 percent and international markets faring only a bit better, down 5 percent to 6 percent. A combination of bad news, from a government shutdown, to the ongoing trade war, to the Fed's decision to raise rates, was enough to shake investor confidence just in time for the holidays. Still, the fundamentals continue to look strong. Has the damage been done? Stay tuned to my Market Thoughts video to find out.

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2019 Market Outlook [Video]

December 28, 2018

As we approach the new year, hiring is strong and both business and consumer confidence remain high. With these solid fundamentals, the financial markets are likely to respond. Earnings should go up, so we should expect to see rising stock prices as well.

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Market Thoughts for December 2018 [Video]

December 4, 2018

November was a rocky month. Concerns surrounding the midterm elections, the trade conflict between the U.S. and China, and the economic slowdown resulted in market turbulence. Still, the financial markets bounced back. Here in the U.S., the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all had some gains. Abroad, the emerging markets rebounded strongly. Even bonds made money, despite interest rate turmoil.

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Market Thoughts for November 2018 [Video]

November 2, 2018

October lived up to its scary reputation, with both U.S. and international markets down. Plus, housing started to roll over, and retail sales disappointed once again. That’s not to mention the political risks. In the U.S., the midterm elections have increased uncertainty. In Europe, there are concerns over Brexit and political turmoil in Germany.

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Market Thoughts for October 2018 [Video]

October 2, 2018

September was a bit of a mixed month: the S&P and Dow did well, while the Nasdaq pulled back on weakness in technology. But for the quarter as a whole, all three indices were up substantially. In the U.S., hiring remained strong, wage growth picked up, and consumer confidence reached an 18-year high. There is also a huge amount of confidence in the business world.

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Market Thoughts for September 2018 [Video]

September 4, 2018

It was another good month here in the U.S., with the stock market up across the board. The economy, consumer confidence, and hiring all continued to grow. This growth is translating into corporate profits as well, with 80 percent of companies beating expectations.

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Market Thoughts for August 2018 [Video]

August 2, 2018

July was a great month for financial markets. In the U.S., the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were all up, and after a terrible June, both developed and emerging markets bounced back. What fueled this performance? Strong economic data, in particular GDP growth, which came in at 4.1 percent for the second quarter, nearly double what it was in the first. Job growth remains strong, corporations are beating sales and earnings expectations, and even the Fed is more positive on the economy than it has been in some time.  

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Market Thoughts for July 2018 [Video]

July 2, 2018

June was a mixed month, as U.S. markets went down with the Dow and up with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Bond markets pulled back a bit on rising rates. There was also pullback abroad, in both developed and emerging markets. Still, the fundamentals are good, and a step-up in second-quarter growth is expected. Job growth is strong, consumer spending is accelerating, and business investment is solid.

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Market Thoughts for June 2018 [Video]

June 1, 2018

May was a good month, continuing the recovery from the pullback we saw at the start of the year. In the U.S., markets were up almost across the board. Consumers continue to spend, and businesses remain confident—with manufacturing doing particularly well. Plus, the government is contributing to this growth by cutting taxes and spending more.

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Market Thoughts for May 2018 [Video]

May 1, 2018

April was a good month, as both U.S. and developed markets were up. This news was encouraging, indicating that the economy seems to be bouncing back after two down months. In fact, the fundamentals are quite strong, with company earnings surprising to the upside to a degree we have never seen before. Plus, sales beat expectations, which is a positive reflection of the markets and the economy.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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