The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for September 2018 [Video]

September 4, 2018

It was another good month here in the U.S., with the stock market up across the board. The economy, consumer confidence, and hiring all continued to grow. This growth is translating into corporate profits as well, with 80 percent of companies beating expectations.

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Market Thoughts for August 2018 [Video]

August 2, 2018

July was a great month for financial markets. In the U.S., the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were all up, and after a terrible June, both developed and emerging markets bounced back. What fueled this performance? Strong economic data, in particular GDP growth, which came in at 4.1 percent for the second quarter, nearly double what it was in the first. Job growth remains strong, corporations are beating sales and earnings expectations, and even the Fed is more positive on the economy than it has been in some time.  

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Market Thoughts for July 2018 [Video]

July 2, 2018

June was a mixed month, as U.S. markets went down with the Dow and up with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Bond markets pulled back a bit on rising rates. There was also pullback abroad, in both developed and emerging markets. Still, the fundamentals are good, and a step-up in second-quarter growth is expected. Job growth is strong, consumer spending is accelerating, and business investment is solid.

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Market Thoughts for June 2018 [Video]

June 1, 2018

May was a good month, continuing the recovery from the pullback we saw at the start of the year. In the U.S., markets were up almost across the board. Consumers continue to spend, and businesses remain confident—with manufacturing doing particularly well. Plus, the government is contributing to this growth by cutting taxes and spending more.

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Market Thoughts for May 2018 [Video]

May 1, 2018

April was a good month, as both U.S. and developed markets were up. This news was encouraging, indicating that the economy seems to be bouncing back after two down months. In fact, the fundamentals are quite strong, with company earnings surprising to the upside to a degree we have never seen before. Plus, sales beat expectations, which is a positive reflection of the markets and the economy.

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Market Thoughts for April 2018 [Video]

April 3, 2018

March was a tough month, with both U.S. and international markets seeing losses. It was the second down month in a row, something we haven't seen in a while. This was due, in part, to markets becoming uncertain on the news of tariffs on China—which rattled companies around the world. Plus, Fed Chair Powell was seen as more hawkish than expected, introducing uncertainty around interest rates.

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Market Thoughts for March 2018 [Video]

March 2, 2018

February was an eventful month for the markets. There was a 10-percent market drawdown in the U.S., something we haven’t seen for almost two years. Although many were worried that this was the “big one,” the markets recovered more than half of their losses by month-end, and the economic fundamentals remain sound.

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Market Thoughts for February 2018 [Video]

February 2, 2018

January was another great month for the markets. All three U.S. indices were up by at least 5 percent, as were international markets. There was a bit of a pullback at the end of the month, as interest rates moved up to levels we haven’t seen in years. Indeed, fixed income took a bit of a hit on these higher rates.

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Market Thoughts for January 2018 [Video]

January 2, 2018

December was another month of good news for the markets. U.S. markets were up across the board, international markets did even better, and emerging markets hit it out of the park. As a result, we are entering the new year with a huge amount of momentum. Hiring continues to be strong, consumer confidence is very close to the highest level since the dot-com boom, and business confidence remains high.

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Market Thoughts for December 2017 [Video]

December 1, 2017

November proved to be another month of good news for the markets. U.S. financial markets were up across the board, and developed markets rose substantially. Hiring continued to do well, personal income grew, and consumer confidence rose to the highest level in 17 years. Plus, business confidence improved more than expected, and business spending was up.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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