The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for April 2018 [Video]

April 3, 2018

March was a tough month, with both U.S. and international markets seeing losses. It was the second down month in a row, something we haven't seen in a while. This was due, in part, to markets becoming uncertain on the news of tariffs on China—which rattled companies around the world. Plus, Fed Chair Powell was seen as more hawkish than expected, introducing uncertainty around interest rates.

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Market Thoughts for March 2018 [Video]

March 2, 2018

February was an eventful month for the markets. There was a 10-percent market drawdown in the U.S., something we haven’t seen for almost two years. Although many were worried that this was the “big one,” the markets recovered more than half of their losses by month-end, and the economic fundamentals remain sound.

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Market Thoughts for February 2018 [Video]

February 2, 2018

January was another great month for the markets. All three U.S. indices were up by at least 5 percent, as were international markets. There was a bit of a pullback at the end of the month, as interest rates moved up to levels we haven’t seen in years. Indeed, fixed income took a bit of a hit on these higher rates.

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Market Thoughts for January 2018 [Video]

January 2, 2018

December was another month of good news for the markets. U.S. markets were up across the board, international markets did even better, and emerging markets hit it out of the park. As a result, we are entering the new year with a huge amount of momentum. Hiring continues to be strong, consumer confidence is very close to the highest level since the dot-com boom, and business confidence remains high.

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Market Thoughts for December 2017 [Video]

December 1, 2017

November proved to be another month of good news for the markets. U.S. financial markets were up across the board, and developed markets rose substantially. Hiring continued to do well, personal income grew, and consumer confidence rose to the highest level in 17 years. Plus, business confidence improved more than expected, and business spending was up.

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Market Thoughts for November 2017 [Video]

November 2, 2017

October was a terrific month for the markets. U.S., developed, and emerging markets were all up. Companies are making money, and stock markets are positive. Plus, despite three of the worst storms in U.S. history, consumer and business confidence grew. This is a very positive sign. On the corporate earnings front, however, there is some worrisome headline data. Still, profit growth continues to beat expectations.

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Market Thoughts for October 2017 [Video]

October 3, 2017

September was a great month for the financial markets. All three U.S. indices and developed markets around the world were up. These results are surprising given recent events. The U.S. was hit by some of the worst storms in history. Plus, the North Korea crisis persists, with credible talk of a nuclear war. Still, the markets continue to respond to the fundamentals, like strong consumer confidence and business investment.

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Market Thoughts for September 2017 [Video]

September 6, 2017

August was a solid month for the economy and financial markets. International markets were mixed, but U.S. markets were up across the board, despite rising tensions with North Korea and the effects of Hurricane Harvey. Plus, retail sales came back, employment grew, and consumers seemed willing and able to spend.

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Market Thoughts for August 2017 [Video]

August 2, 2017

July was another great month for the markets and economy. U.S. and developed markets were up, due to the simple fact that companies are making more money. Earnings came in much better than expected, U.S. job growth was strong, and wage growth picked up. Plus, both consumer and business confidence are on the rise. Clearly, there is positive momentum going forward.

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Market Thoughts for July 2017 [Video]

July 5, 2017

June was a good month, with consumer confidence and business confidence remaining strong. The Federal Reserve raised rates and seems likely to keep doing so. Plus, growth is accelerating around the world, from Europe to China. But here’s the problem: Both consumer spending and business investment are not growing as much as expected.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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