The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for March 2024 [Video]

March 4, 2024

Stocks performed well in February, with most markets up in the low- to mid-single digits. The Nasdaq and emerging markets did especially well, but fixed income declined as interest rates rose. Job, income, and spending growth remained positive, but these results kept inflation up.

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Market Thoughts for February 2024 [Video]

February 2, 2024

The U.S. stock market reported lower-single-digit gains in January, while international and emerging markets lagged behind. The economy performed well, as strong retail sales, a healthy jobs market, and consumer confidence drove the fourth-quarter growth.

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Market Thoughts for January 2024 [Video]

January 3, 2024

Markets around the world were up from 3 percent to 6 percent last month and up by double digits across the board for the year. The lack of a recession drove these positive results, with job growth and consumer confidence remaining healthy.

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Market Thoughts for December 2023 [Video]

December 4, 2023

Markets roared back in November, as interest rates dropped to September levels. U.S. indices were up from 8 percent to 11 percent, with the Nasdaq performing best. Fixed income showed surprising gains, and international markets rose sharply.

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Market Thoughts for November 2023 [Video]

November 2, 2023

U.S. indices were down for the third consecutive month, with the Nasdaq doing the worst. International markets also pulled back, and fixed income was down. Despite the market performance, job growth remained healthy, consumer income and spending grew, and retail sales increased.

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Market Thoughts for October 2023 [Video]

October 3, 2023

U.S. indices were down for the second consecutive month, with the Nasdaq doing the worst. International markets pulled back, and fixed income was also down. That said, job growth remained healthy, consumer confidence and spending grew, and business investment came in strong. 

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Market Thoughts for September 2023 [Video]

September 5, 2023

U.S. indices were down by low single digits in August, with the Nasdaq doing the worst. International markets pulled back, and fixed income was down. This market performance reflected the underlying economy. Business and consumer confidence slowed, while inflation showed signs of ticking up again.

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Market Thoughts for August 2023 [Video]

August 2, 2023

U.S. indices were up by low single digits in July, with the Nasdaq doing best as tech stocks continued to rally. International markets also did well, but fixed income was weaker. This market performance reflected the underlying economy. Strong job creation pushed consumer confidence up significantly, supporting income and spending growth. Inflation continued its decline, although the Fed raised rates again as expected.

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Market Thoughts for July 2023 [Video]

July 3, 2023

U.S. stocks were up for June and the quarter while gains in international markets last month left them flat for the quarter. Fixed income didn’t fare as well. Market performance reflected positive economic news, with continued strong job creation, income and spending growth, and improving consumer confidence. But while inflation is down, it may not stay that way.

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Market Thoughts for June 2023 [Video]

June 2, 2023

After a mixed April, markets pulled back in May. The exception was the Nasdaq, which was up by just under 6 percent. Other U.S. markets were flat or down, and international markets declined. The primary headwinds were the debt ceiling debate (which may soon be solved) and signs that inflation is picking up again. Still, job growth beat expectations, and consumer and business confidence ticked up.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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