The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for December 2022 [Video]

December 2, 2022

November was a good month for markets as the bounce from October continued. U.S. indices saw single-digit gains, and developed and emerging markets were up by double digits. The primary driver here was optimism that the Fed will slow future rate increases. On the economic side, job growth remained healthy, inflation dropped, and business confidence was strong.
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Market Thoughts for November 2022 [Video]

November 2, 2022

It was a good month for the markets after a difficult September. The Dow and S&P showed strong gains, and developed markets did well. The rebound was driven by the prospect of a slowdown in future rate increases. On the economic front, job growth remained solid, driving increases in personal income and spending.

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Market Thoughts for October 2022 [Video]

October 4, 2022

September was a bad month for markets, which were down between 8 percent and 12 percent for the month both here and abroad. The decline was driven by interest rates, which rose sharply. Despite the market pullback, there was some positive data for the last quarter. Job growth was down but remained strong by historical standards, and both major measures of consumer confidence rose.

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Market Thoughts for September 2022 [Video]

September 2, 2022

After a strong rebound in July, markets pulled back again in August. U.S. and developed international markets ended the month down by 3 percent to 5 percent, and fixed income declined. The primary driver here was rising rates. Higher rates provide for lower stock market values, and with fears of a recession taking down expected earnings, the market had a double whammy. Still, there was good economic news. Job growth beat expectations, and consumer and producer inflation showed signs of peaking.

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Market Thoughts for August 2022 [Video]

August 2, 2022

After a terrible start to 2022, markets rebounded in July. U.S. and developed international markets were up by 5 percent or more, with only emerging markets trailing. The primary driver here was the Fed. It has raised interest rates close to a neutral level, and markets are anticipating the worst of the tightening cycle has passed. But with the U.S. economy contracting for the second quarter in a row, can the rebound continue? Stay tuned to my latest Market Thoughts video to find out.

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Market Thoughts for July 2022 [Video]

July 1, 2022

June was a terrible month, with stock markets in the U.S. and abroad down substantially and developed international markets hit the hardest. The underlying reason? The Fed. With inflation high, the Fed has raised interest rates over the past six months, which has driven the risks of a recession. Still, the economic news is healthy. Companies are hiring, supporting spending growth, and business investment is sound.

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Market Thoughts for June 2022 [Video]

June 1, 2022

Markets started to stabilize in May. The Dow and S&P 500 ended the month with small gains, while the Nasdaq’s loss was small by recent standards. International markets edged up a bit more than U.S. markets, while fixed income showed gains. The primary driver here was interest rates, which showed signs of stabilizing. Further, hiring remained strong, supporting spending growth, and business investment was healthy.

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Market Thoughts for May 2022 [Video]

May 3, 2022

April was one of the worst months for the markets since the start of the pandemic.U.S. markets were down between 5 percent for the Dow and 14 percent for the Nasdaq, while international markets fell between 5 percent and 7 percent. Rising interest rates drove the declines, with the Fed signaling it intended to keep tightening monetary policy. Still, the U.S. economic news was positive. Hiring remained strong, supporting consumer confidence, and business confidence and investment remained healthy.

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Market Thoughts for April 2022 [Video]

April 1, 2022

We saw a bounce in stock markets for March, but everything was down between 3 percent and 8 percent for the first quarter. The reasons for this were twofold. First, with inflation at a 40-year high, the Fed was forced to raise interest rates. Second, the Russian invasion of Ukraine unsettled markets. Still, there were some positives. Hiring was strong, and business confidence and investment were healthy.

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Market Thoughts for March 2022 [Video]

March 1, 2022

Markets were down across the board in February, with U.S. indices dropping between 3 percent and 4 percent, while international markets were down 2 percent to 3 percent. Still, markets bounced back a bit to end the month. The reasons for this were twofold: interest rates pulled back in the U.S. and the medical news continued to improve.

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