Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2019

November 6, 2019

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

The economic data released in October largely came in better than expected, with increasing service sector and consumer confidence offsetting some of the declines we saw in September. Job creation also came in better than anticipated, and the yield curve normalized for the first time in months. Despite these positive results, the longer-term trends continue to deteriorate, suggesting there are still very real risks in the economy that should be monitored going forward.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2019

October 8, 2019

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2019

September 10, 2019

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2019

August 20, 2019

Starting this week, my colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, will be helping me with the Economic Risk Factor Update posts. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

The economic data released last month was mixed, with improvements in consumer confidence offset by declining business sentiment. Job creation continued to be solid, but there are signs of a slowdown. The yield curve remains inverted despite the rate cut made at the Fed’s July meeting. Although we are not yet at immediate risk levels, there are certain areas of the economy that should be watched closely going forward.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2019

July 10, 2019

Although there was some good news last month—job growth bounced back to come in well above expectations—the overall trend remains negative. Confidence has continued to decline, while the yield curve hit an official inversion as of the end of June. That said, conditions remain generally favorable, with all metrics in expansionary territory except the yield curve, but there is no doubt the risk level has risen further. That risk still does not look immediate, but that point may be getting closer.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2019

June 7, 2019

After a difficult first quarter, April’s data was better. But, in aggregate, May has not continued that improvement. Job growth has slowed further, taking it closer to a risk level. Plus, the interest rate outlook continues to deteriorate, with the yield curve now inverted for a period of weeks. Not all the news was bad: both consumer and business confidence improved, which should help growth going forward. Overall, though, risk levels have increased somewhat.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2019

May 9, 2019

After a difficult quarter, April’s data showed signs of meaningful improvement. Job growth bounced back, easing a major concern. Plus, consumer confidence improved, which should help growth going forward. On the other hand, business confidence dipped further, and the yield curve remains close to a risk level.

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