Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2019

July 10, 2019

Although there was some good news last month—job growth bounced back to come in well above expectations—the overall trend remains negative. Confidence has continued to decline, while the yield curve hit an official inversion as of the end of June. That said, conditions remain generally favorable, with all metrics in expansionary territory except the yield curve, but there is no doubt the risk level has risen further. That risk still does not look immediate, but that point may be getting closer.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2019

June 7, 2019

After a difficult first quarter, April’s data was better. But, in aggregate, May has not continued that improvement. Job growth has slowed further, taking it closer to a risk level. Plus, the interest rate outlook continues to deteriorate, with the yield curve now inverted for a period of weeks. Not all the news was bad: both consumer and business confidence improved, which should help growth going forward. Overall, though, risk levels have increased somewhat.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2019

May 9, 2019

After a difficult quarter, April’s data showed signs of meaningful improvement. Job growth bounced back, easing a major concern. Plus, consumer confidence improved, which should help growth going forward. On the other hand, business confidence dipped further, and the yield curve remains close to a risk level.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2019

April 9, 2019

The primary worry over the past month has been employment: was the very weak February job number a one-off or a sign of something worse? Fortunately, it looks like the former, which eases the primary risk. Unfortunately, we saw the other risk factors continue to trend down, suggesting that the economy might well be slowing even more than expected. Here, one key point at month-end was the brief inversion of the yield curve, which raised concerns.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2019

March 12, 2019

After signs of weakness in January, the question was whether we would see a rebound in February. In some areas—consumer and business confidence—we did, largely driven by the end of the government shutdown. This confidence rebound has reduced risk going forward, although we need to pay attention to whether it holds.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2019

February 7, 2019

As far as we know, the economic news remained solid if somewhat mixed last month. The caveat here is that the government shutdown delayed some reports. The core data we look at, however, is available.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2019

January 9, 2019

Despite last month’s political and market turmoil, the economic news remained solid if somewhat mixed. Both consumer and business confidence pulled back a bit but remained at healthy levels overall. Hiring rebounded strongly after weak results last month. This rebound should help maintain consumer and business confidence going forward, despite the December pullbacks. Finally, longer-term interest rates, which had been a concern after Fed rate hikes and hawkish commentary, also moderated.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via E-mail

Crash-Test Investing
Commonwealth Independent Advisor

Hot Topics

Have a Question?

New Call-to-action




The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index.

The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.  

Third party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided at these websites. Information on such sites, including third party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.


Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®