This morning’s announcement of the deal between Congress and the White House to suspend the debt ceiling for the next two years is undiluted good news. With an agreement that the government can borrow to spend the money that it has already committed to spending, we can avoid a totally unnecessary, politically driven crisis that could have caused real economic damage. Assuming the deal actually gets passed and signed, it would remove the only near-term roadblock to continued expansion here in the U.S. Like I said, this is definitely good news.

The term recession is having a moment. There is talk of a manufacturing recession, an earnings recession, and, the big one, an economic recession here in the U.S. Worry has been rising with the headlines of slower growth, especially with the recent inversion of the yield curve. Recession is a bad, bad word.

In retrospect, a good candidate for demonstrating the peak of the boom may be yesterday’s announcement by Netflix that subscriber growth came in well below expectations during the second quarter: the number of subscribers was up by 2.7 million against expectations of 5.3 million. Worse, in its most developed market (i.e., the U.S.), subscriber numbers were actually down by 126,000, against an expected gain of 310,000. This marks the first time the company has ever seen a decline in U.S. subscribers.

An issue I have been mentioning for the past couple of months is finally starting to get some attention: the U.S. is facing a potential crisis as the government runs out of money. Sometime this fall, likely in September, the government won't have the funds to pay its bills.

This morning, I spent some time speaking with a client who wanted to know why markets had slowed down recently. But I am not sure I agree with her. We hit all-time highs just the other day, although in recent days, the market has been taking a bit of a breather. Will that down time continue, or could we get another leg up?

Q2 2019: it was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Okay, it wasn’t either, but last quarter we did see something that looked like both. After hitting new highs in April (the best!), markets declined significantly in May for the first time all year (the worst!) and then bounced back in June close to all-time highs. Internationally, we saw the same story, although to a lesser extent, as both developed and emerging markets echoed U.S. performance with an up-down-up pattern. We closed the quarter on a positive note, though, with all major indices up around the world. As far as the stock market is concerned, it was a good quarter.

Happy Independence Day! Independence Day is actually one of my favorite science fiction B movies. It gave me one of my best laugh lines for speeches: “You remember the movie Independence Day—it started with aliens destroying Washington, DC. Later on, though, it turned out they were hostile.”

There has been a great deal of coverage on slowing growth. Indeed, on this blog we have looked at signs that the recovery may be close to the end. What that means, of course, is that a recession may well be in the cards in the next couple of years. Although we are not there yet, now is a good time to take a closer look at what it could look like. After all, it has been more than 10 years since we last had a recession, and that one was not typical.

“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”

As I kind of expected, some news did hit yesterday while my son and I were fishing that is definitely worth a closer look. The Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence—one of the most underappreciated economic stats there is—dropped from 131.3 in May to 121.5 for June. This result is the lowest level since September 2017.