The Independent Market Observer

10/21/13 Revenues and Earnings – Back to Fundamentals

October 21, 2013

Now that we are entering peak week for earnings reporting, it is time to take a look at what that means for the stock market. We have some data so far, but not much, so I want to defer a detailed analysis to next week. For the moment, let’s look at financials.

I wrote back on June 11 and July 10 about the pressure the financial services industry, particularly banks, was likely to come under and the negative effect that was likely to have. Specific points I made were regulations, capital requirements, more operational scrutiny, slowing mortgage demand, and others.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

10/15/13 – Short Post from New York

October 15, 2013

First of all, thank you to everyone who wrote nice things about my appearance on CNBC yesterday—much appreciated. It’s fun to do that kind of appearance because you never know exactly what will be discussed, and you have to prepare. Keeps me on my toes!

This will be a short post because I’m in New York attending a conference on ETFs put on by iShares. ETFs, for those who haven’t run into them, are exchange-traded funds—that is, a portfolio of assets (stocks, bonds, what have you) that is traded like a single share of stock. They are similar to a mutual fund that tracks a specific stock or bond index, such as the Barclays Capital 1-3 Year Treasury Index. ETFs trade on one of the major stock markets and can be bought and sold throughout the trading day, like a stock, at the current market price. And, like stock investing, ETF investing involves principal risk—the chance that you won’t get all the money back that you originally invested—market risk, underlying securities risk, and secondary market price. ETFs have become a major part of the investing landscape over the past several years, changing the way many people and institutions invest.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

10/11/13 – Housing Recovery Moderating: A Good Thing

October 11, 2013

One of the great things about working at Commonwealth is the depth of knowledge of our team. Today, we have another post from Peter Essele, one of our portfolio managers and analysts.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

9/24/13 – Gratitudes for America

September 24, 2013

As I mentioned yesterday, the countdown to fiscal meltdown is back on. Washington, DC, has once again formed a circular firing squad, busily loading weapons and aiming across the circle, oblivious to the fact that the guy on the other side is doing the same thing.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

7/17/13 – More About Lobster Rolls

July 17, 2013

So my wife, who is the more organized thinker of the two of us, wanted to continue last summer’s research project in a more structured way. Rather than just randomly looking for lobster rolls to try, she researched which local restaurants had received accolades for them, with the idea that we’d work our way through the award winners.

As I have learned to do over the years, I bowed to her superior wisdom, with the result that we tried the lobster rolls at the Clam Shack, a small place right by the bridge in the center of Kennebunkport, Maine.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

6/7/13 – First Thoughts About Amsterdam

June 7, 2013

I really like Amsterdam. I’m not sure exactly what it is, but I’ve never taken to a city like I have this one. Part of it is just that the city seems to work. The trams run on time and have an easily understood layout. The streets and canals are reasonably clean. The people are all clean and healthy, at least as far as I saw. They are also, by and large, courteous and helpful to the traveler.

Another plus was the weather. We really lucked out—it was sunny, warm, and pleasant the whole time. There were lots of very nice playgrounds, which got the five-year-old-boy vote. And there were small boats for rent on the canals, another bonus for Jackson.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

5/30/13 – Off to Europe

May 30, 2013

I’ll be out of the office for the next week on a trip to Europe, staying in Amsterdam for a week and then a couple of days in Dublin. This is a family vacation, so I’ll certainly be able to report on the five-year-old-boy perspective when I return.

On top of that, though, the trip will offer a valuable eyewitness look at two critical areas in the eurozone. The Netherlands is one of the core northern countries that’s paying the bills—and becoming increasingly conflicted about continuing to do so. I look forward to seeing how that national conversation looks on the ground.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

5/28/13 – Welcome to Summer

May 28, 2013

My family and I spent the holiday weekend in Maine. Unfortunately, it was in the 40s and 50s on Saturday and Sunday, and, unsurprisingly, there weren’t a lot of people at the pool. Fortunately, Jackson, my now five-year-old son, was happy to spend some quality time snuggled up next to Dad watching movies while Dad read. Sometimes, a quiet weekend is just right.

We did get out a bit, including a drive to the nature lodge on the top of Mount Agamenticus, a local mountain with wonderful views from the summit (on a clear day, which this was not) and miles of trails. Jackson and I have hiked up there before, but this time we just wanted to show it to Mom, who was duly impressed. We’ll be heading back later this summer to do some more hiking.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

4/19/13 – More About Jobs, Gratitude, and Apple/Gold

April 19, 2013

I am in Virginia today and tomorrow, speaking to groups of clients. With no major economic stories going on, I thought I would do a couple of quick hits on various topics.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

3/7/12 – Rather Pleased with This . . .

March 7, 2013

Recently, I was invited by the CFA Institute to contribute some thoughts to a discussion of investment versus speculation and how you can tell them apart. My commentary was published, and I’ve received some very nice feedback on it. You can read it here.

 

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via Email

AI_Community_Podcast_Thumb - 1

 

Episode 11
September 10, 2025

Episode 10
August 13, 2025

Episode 9
July 23, 2025

Episode 8
June 18, 2025

Episode 7
May 14, 2025

More


Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®