--- title: Rates May Rise Faster Than Anyone Expects description: Commonwealth's Brad McMillan explains why we may be in for faster rate increases. image: https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-967166464-jpg/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/Spring_2014/InterestRates_1-1.jpg --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) ### ![print this page](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-1376458285-gif/images/print.gif)Print # [Rates May Rise Faster Than Anyone Expects](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/rates-may-rise-faster-than-anyone-expects) Posted by [Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai) Find me on: [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [Twitter](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA) This entry was posted on Jan 24, 2017, 4:42:35 PM [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/rates-may-rise-faster-than-anyone-expects#comments-listing) ![rates](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-967166464-jpg/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/Spring_2014/InterestRates_1-1.jpg?width=260&name=InterestRates_1-1.jpg "rates")As the [Trump administration](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-economy-under-president-trump) gets under way, there are two major economic concerns to keep an eye on. The first is trade, which we will discuss tomorrow. The second doesn’t have anything to do with the President, at least directly. It is monetary policy—specifically, how and when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. More than anything else, this is what will control the economy and markets during Donald Trump’s term. ##### **Fed policy (and the market response) over the years** In terms of rates, we are, arguably, in unprecedented times. With short-term rates held close to zero for years, and the Fed only just having approved a second rate hike, it may not seem that rates will actually go up anytime soon. A look at history, however, shows that idea is misguided. In the chart below, the light-blue line represents the effective fed funds interest rate, set by the Fed. The dark-blue line is the interest rate on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which is set in the markets and not controlled by the Fed. The chart shows not the rates themselves but how they changed over the prior year, which we can examine to see how Fed policy actually plays out over time and how the market responds.   ![rates.jpg](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/Charts/rates.jpg?width=551&height=413&name=rates.jpg) Let’s start with the fed funds rate, the one that gets all of the press whenever the Fed meets. You can see that, over the past 30 years (at least, before the financial crisis), it bounced around quite a bit, moving between increases of 2 percent and decreases of about 4 percent on a year-to-year basis. Although the extremes represented booms and crises, even ordinary times showed bounces between +1 and –1. Ordinary volatility was actually quite high during normal times, especially compared with recent experience. Since the crisis, however, the rate has been essentially flat. As much as we tend to overweight recent experience in anticipating the future, the fact of the matter is this: **if the economy really has normalized and the Fed has finally accepted it, as it seems to have done, we should expect the future to be radically different than the past seven years.** Future rate hikes should be faster and larger than expected. Even a return to the normal of the past 30 years would look pretty abnormal compared with recent experience. Moving on to longer-term interest rates, the 10-year Treasury note shows something different. Prior to the crisis, there was a very close correlation between the fed funds rate and the 10-year rate. Since the crisis, we have still seen volatility in the 10-year rate, albeit at a much lower level, even though the fed funds rate has been flat. In fact, there have been two episodes since the crisis when 10-year yields climbed by more than 100 basis points—that is, by more than a percentage point. Before the crisis, however, the bumps regularly hit 200 basis points, suggesting that although the 10-year has been volatile, the fixing of the Fed funds rate has limited its movements. ##### **Normal: more volatile than we remember?** Putting it all together, if we accept that the Fed is gradually coming to view the economy as normal and starting to move rates around as it did before the crisis—and that future long-term rate changes are very likely to be more volatile than they have been (on top of the larger changes in the fed funds rate)—then rates across the board are likely to increase by much more than they have since the crisis. In other words, moving back to normal is good for the economy, but it stands to shake the bond markets in ways we haven’t seen in years. These conclusions are based on Fed and market behaviors over several decades. That's before we even consider rising indicators of both growth and inflation, which will provide the causal narrative behind higher rates. As it did before the crisis, the economy will again drive decisions by the Fed and markets, a big shift from where we’ve been since the crisis. Everyone has been waiting for the economy and markets to normalize, but we’ve forgotten just how much volatility was associated with that. Things are now moving back to normal conditions, but we may end up with some regrets about what we wished for. - [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLJ2r9QY%2FSD%2F9XMLLnld9O3CD2qkeQD7Bno09g6mBSsRbpqwFYR3sz6PcjOaXp6tXHOH1Z4Z9C4UPZL0Lb2qXddRDRdy8qHJqtqQTSYivev28p2LlDmfQLk%2BB9hVALlWEzOgwXmRFephKd7movsdxl1%2BHnao6Kf8BnjCnGp%2FR0M8nfWRbLRZXob%2B55ePuUmJR%2BxiYwcF9Smij3Q%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - [September 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/09) - [August 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/08) - [July 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/07) - [June 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/06) - [May 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/05) - [April 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/04) - [March 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/03) - [February 2026 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/02) - [January 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/01) - [December 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/12) - [November 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/11) - [October 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/10) - [September 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/09) - [August 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/08) - [July 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/07) - [June 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/06) - [May 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/05) - [April 2025 (7)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/04) - [March 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/03) - [February 2025 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/02) - [January 2025 (1)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/01) - [December 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/12) - [November 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/11) - [October 2024 (9)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/10) - [September 2024 (12)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/09) - [August 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/08) - [July 2024 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/07) - [June 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/06) - [May 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/05) - [April 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/04) - [March 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/03) - [February 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/02) - [January 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/01) - [December 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/12) - [November 2023 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/11) - [October 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/10) - [September 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/09) - [August 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/08) - [July 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/07) - [June 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/06) - [May 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/05) - [April 2023 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/04) - [March 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/03) - [February 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/02) - [January 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/01) - [December 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/12) - [November 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/11) - [October 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/10) - [September 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/09) - [August 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/08) - [July 2022 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/07) - [June 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/06) - [May 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/05) - [April 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/04) - [March 2022 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/03) - [February 2022 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/02) - [January 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/01) - [December 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/12) - [November 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/11) - [October 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/10) - [September 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/09) - [August 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/08) - [July 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/07) - [June 2021 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/06) - [May 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/05) - [April 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/04) - [March 2021 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/03) - [February 2021 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/02) - [January 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/01) - [December 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/12) - [November 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/11) - [October 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/10) - [September 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/09) - [August 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/08) - [July 2020 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/07) - [June 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/06) - [May 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/05) - [April 2020 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/04) - [March 2020 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/03) - [February 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/02) - [January 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/01) - [December 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/12) - [November 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/11) - [October 2019 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/10) - [September 2019 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/09) - [August 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/08) - [July 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/07) - [June 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/06) - [May 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/05) - [April 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/04) - [March 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/03) - [February 2019 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/02) - [January 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/01) - [December 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/12) - [November 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/11) - [October 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/10) - [September 2018 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/09) - [August 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/08) - [July 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/07) - [June 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/06) - [May 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/05) - [April 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/04) - [March 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/03) - [February 2018 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/02) - [January 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/01) - [December 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/12) - [November 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/11) - [October 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/10) - [September 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/09) - [August 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/08) - [July 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/07) - [June 2017 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/06) - [May 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/05) - [April 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/04) - [March 2017 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/03) - [February 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/02) - [January 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/01) - [December 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/12) - [November 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/11) - [October 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/10) - [September 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/09) - [August 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/08) - [July 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/07) - [June 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/06) - [May 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/05) - [April 2016 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/04) - [March 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/03) - [February 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/02) - [January 2016 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/01) - [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12) - [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11) - [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10) - [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09) - [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08) - [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07) - [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06) - [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05) - [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04) - [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03) - [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02) - [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01) - [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12) - [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11) - [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10) - [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09) - [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08) - [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07) - [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06) - [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05) - [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04) - [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03) - [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02) - [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01) - [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12) - [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11) - [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10) - [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09) - [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08) - [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07) - [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06) - [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05) - [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04) - [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03) - [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02) - [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01) - [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12) - [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11) - [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10) - [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09) - [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08) - [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07) - [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06) see all ### Subscribe - [RSS](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/rss.xml) ### Disclosure The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks. One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings. Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation. Member [FINRA](http://www.FINRA.org), [SIPC](http://www.SIPC.org) Please review our [Terms of Use](https://www.commonwealth.com/terms-of-use).  Commonwealth Financial Network®