The Independent Market Observer

Economy Hit Hard in Recent Weeks

January 7, 2021

As expected, we saw a pullback in many coronavirus indicators over the Christmas holidays. But also as expected, the data has bounced back, indicating that the drop was due to slower reporting rather than an actual decline in cases. Looking forward, we still have another couple of weeks where infections due to holiday travel will show up in the data, and there are signs that is starting to occur. The next two weeks are likely to show continued case growth. While some sections of the country are showing improvements, we are not through this wave yet.

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Washington Turns (Very Light) Blue

January 6, 2021

Today should be the day we see Washington start to turn blue. With the Congress meeting to count the inaugural votes and with the Georgia Senate runoff likely to show both seats won by Democrats, all three arms of government will be under control of the Democratic Party come the inauguration.

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Looking Back at the Markets in December 2020 and Ahead to January 2021

January 5, 2021

At the start of a new year, it makes sense to look back and see where we were, before looking ahead to where we are going. This year, doing this is especially important, given the significant changes we saw in December. But we start January in a very different place—a place with better news, better prospects, and lower risks.

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Market Thoughts for January 2021 [Video]

January 4, 2021

December was a great month for the markets, with gains across the board. Unfortunately, we saw rising economic damage. Job growth dropped, and layoffs rose. Consumer confidence and spending also declined as the medical risks drove governmental shutdowns. Still, business confidence and spending were solid, and December's federal stimulus bill should help revive consumer demand.

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Monday Update: Initial Jobless Claims Fall

January 4, 2021

Last week was quiet on the economic update front, with the weekly initial jobless claims report serving as the only major data release. The number of initial unemployment claims fell by more than expected, but the Christmas holiday may have led to some volatility in the reporting. This week will be a busier one for updates, with a look at December’s business confidence and employment reports serving as potential highlights.

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Pandemic Indicators Show Signs of Improvement

December 31, 2020

As expected, we have seen a pullback in many pandemic indicators over the Christmas holidays. We are also, again as expected, starting to see the data bounce back, indicating the drop was more due to slower reporting than an actual decline in cases. Looking forward, holiday travel may well give us another surge, so take the current better news with a grain of salt. While a peak is coming, we are not through this wave yet, despite encouraging signs from the Midwest.

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Reflections from the Massachusetts Conference for Women

December 31, 2020

Today's first post is from Giovanna Zaffina, wealth management platform manager, and Anu Gaggar, senior investment research analyst.

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Trade Deals in 2020

December 30, 2020

Today’s post is from Peter Roberto, investment research analyst on our Investment Management and Research team.

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Embracing America’s Colorful Future

December 29, 2020

Today's post is from Anu Gaggar, senior investment research analyst on our Investment Management and Research team.

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Monday Update: Consumer Recovery Falters

December 28, 2020

Last week’s economic updates largely pointed to a slowing economic recovery as we headed into the end of the year. The evidence includes a drop in personal spending in November, falling consumer confidence, and continued high levels of weekly layoffs. There were some signs for optimism, however, as business investment remained resilient and housing sales stayed strong on a year-over-year basis. Due to the holidays, this week will be very quiet, with only the weekly initial jobless claims report set to be released.

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