The Independent Market Observer

Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]

May 15, 2024

April’s reports showed signs of continued slowing economic growth. Hiring slowed during the month, with 175,000 jobs added. Service sector and consumer confidence both fell in April, while the yield curve inversion narrowed.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Sentiment Slides in May

May 13, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Looking Back at the Markets in April and Ahead to May 2024

May 7, 2024

Markets pulled back in April, as high inflation and rising interest rates led to mid-single-digit declines for stocks during the month.

This result marked the first monthly decline for U.S. equities this year following a strong first quarter. International markets came in mixed, as developed markets were down in April while emerging markets saw a modest gain. Fixed income was also down for the month.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Slows in April

May 6, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Digesting the Fed: Higher for Longer and Longer

May 2, 2024

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted unanimously to hold rates steady for the sixth consecutive meeting, leaving its policy range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. Futures markets had this expectation confidently priced in since mid-February, so the official decision comes as no surprise. This view is in stark contrast to market expectations at the start of 2024, when a second rate cut was fully priced in for this point in time. Yet even the first rate cut still eludes us.

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Market Thoughts for May 2024 [Video]

May 2, 2024

Rising interest rates pressured stock and bond prices in April. U.S. markets were down in the low-single digits, marking the first monthly decline for U.S. stocks this year. The combination of faster hiring and still-hot inflation complicated the Fed’s efforts to cut interest rates.

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Economic Release Snapshot: GDP Growth Slows in the First Quarter

April 29, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Global Inflation Outlook: Where Do We Go from Here?

April 25, 2024

Almost two years ago exactly, I wrote the piece “Global Inflation Outlook: Are Lower Numbers on the Horizon? Global inflation peaked at 14.3 percent that same month (April 2022). Initially, inflation sharply came off this top, hitting a low of 2.1 percent in May 2023. But more recently, we saw prints above 5 percent globally on a headline basis before returning to the 3 percent range by year-end.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]

April 24, 2024

Equity markets continued to rally in March, as all three major U.S. indices were up for the month. The S&P 500 gained 3.22 percent in March, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.21 percent. The Nasdaq Composite lagged slightly, as the technology-heavy index gained 1.85 percent. Improving fundamentals and a supportive economic backdrop helped support equities during the month.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Retail Sales Surge in March

April 22, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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