My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

With the regular meeting of the Fed underway, we now all wait with bated breath to find out what the decision will be. Well, in this case, there is not much doubt: it will be an increase of 50 bps. But we can still wonder about the wrapping on the present. To shift metaphors and get a bit ahead of ourselves, will Chair Powell come out and see his shadow, signaling six more rate increases? Or will there be sunny skies ahead?

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Today, we are going to be bouncing back and forth between several different economic and market data sets I reviewed this morning and using this information to form both specific and general conclusions. Each of these data sets could reasonably be interpreted as either good news or bad, so it's important to see whether we can tell the difference.

The October bounce continued in November, with the S&P 500 up 5.59 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up 6.04 percent, while the Nasdaq trailed with a respectable gain of 4.51 percent. Internationally, the news was even better, with developed markets up 11.26 percent and emerging markets leading the pack with a 14.85 percent gain. It was a good month across the board and surprisingly so for international markets after an extended period of underperformance.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

It’s time for the monthly jobs report preview, which is worth doing for a few reasons. First, it lets us consider the most important driver of the economy both for history and for the immediate data. Second, it makes us think about our expectations. And third, of course, it will be in the headlines.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.