Energy was the top-performing equity sector in the S&P 500 during the first half of 2022, with a total return of 31.8 percent. Crude oil and natural gas fundamentals were favorable heading into 2022 amid strong demand, low inventories, and limited spare capacity globally. Since the pandemic recovery, demand has exceeded supply for both commodities. Furthermore, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accelerated the supply constraints resulting in spiking energy prices.

The first estimate of national economic growth, the gross domestic product (GDP), came in this morning at an annualized, quarter-on-quarter growth rate of –0.9 percent. This is better than last quarter’s number of –1.6 percent, but it is still the second quarter in a row of decline. By some definitions, this means we are now in a recession, and you can expect to see that all over the headlines in the next several days.

According to FactSet’s data, the earnings data so far is somewhat disappointing. As of the end of last week, with 21 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting, fewer companies were beating expectations for both revenues and earnings than has been normal. Earnings growth for the quarter is expected to be the lowest since the end of 2020, when the pandemic was really getting going and before the federal stimulus programs hit. Taking those headlines, things look pretty bad.

So, what will the Fed do at today's meeting? Almost everyone thinks it will raise rates by 75 bps, or three-quarters of a percent. Almost, in this case, means that a minority of people think the Fed will raise rates by more, like a full percentage point. But the takeaway is that everyone does expect rates to go up—and by an amount that, prior to the past couple of months, would have been shockingly large.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

One of the headlines I have been asked about recently is the strong dollar. People are concerned about what it means, how it could hurt the U.S. economy, and, of course, how it will affect their investments. Good questions all.

One of the most surprising things to come out of the first half of 2022 was the walloping fixed income investors received from bonds. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index posted its worst 12-month return in its entire history, which caused many investors to shed exposures, particularly longer-term sectors.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

One of the questions I have been getting recently is about consumer confidence. Some headlines are saying it is at all-time lows, while others (including me) are saying it isn’t bad at all. Since how people feel obviously affects how much they spend and, therefore, the economy, this is a big and meaningful difference. So, what is going on?

One of the standard portfolios that investors use, with 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds, has had a really bad start to the year, with the largest declines in decades. These portfolios were supposed to balance growth and risk, with both allocations growing over time but with each offsetting the other. When stocks were up, bonds would be down, and vice versa. As such, this was the portfolio that would let investors participate in the market’s gains without too much of the downside.