The Independent Market Observer

4/24/14 – Six Views of the Initial Jobless Claims Data

April 24, 2014

Today’s post is inspired by Thirty-Six Views of Mount Fuji, a series of woodblock prints by the Japanese artist Hokusai that depicts the same scene from various perspectives, yielding very different images. Data can be viewed the same way, with various angles giving different impressions and potentially leading to very distinct conclusions.

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4/23/14 – Should We Worry About the Housing Slowdown?

April 23, 2014

The headline for this morning is that new home sales are down more than 14 percent on a month-to-month basis. This comes in tandem with drops in mortgage applications and a much smaller drop, of less than 1 percent, in existing home sales. With rates up, and demand potentially declining as institutional buyers pull back, is it time to worry that the housing recovery is over?

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4/22/14 – Some Thoughts on Capital in the Twenty First-Century by Thomas Piketty

April 22, 2014

A caveat about this post: I haven’t yet read the book, so this is neither a review nor a real engagement with Piketty’s arguments. I’ll get to that—I just ordered the Kindle version, and have a couple of very long plane rides coming up, which should be ideal.

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4/21/14 – Spring Is a Great Time to Read P.G. Wodehouse

April 21, 2014

I’ll be honest with you; I don’t have a lot to talk about today as far as economics and the market go. The recovery continues, markets are back in the trading range of the past six weeks or so, and there simply is not a lot to write about today.

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4/17/14 – Why Financial Advisors Are the Good Guys

April 17, 2014

My son, Jackson, is almost six, and we are starting to have conversations about what Daddy does for work. Since he is also at the age where we spend an inordinate amount of time talking about good guys versus bad guys—particularly in the context of Star Wars—this also tends to bleed over into other areas. So, of course, it got me thinking about where we, as an industry, stand.

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4/16/14 – What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 3: The Effects on Investments

April 16, 2014

This is the last installment in our series on rising interest rates. Here, we’ll cover what everyone really wants to know: What do rising rates mean for our investments?

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4/15/14 – What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 2: What’s Keeping Rates Low, and What Happens When It Stops?

April 15, 2014

Yesterday, we discussed what the natural rate of interest should be, arriving at about 5 percent on a nominal basis, assuming 2-percent inflation. That seems like a reasonable number over time, given that the Federal Reserve has committed to an inflation target of 2 percent. But with interest rates currently at much less than 3 percent, there’s clearly a gap between what the rate should be and where it is now.

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4/14/14 – Interview on CNBC's Closing Bell

April 14, 2014

Check out Brad’s April 10 interview on CNBC's Closing Bell.

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4/14/14 – What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 1: The Natural Interest Rate

April 14, 2014

I admit I was waiting to see what the markets did before I wrote this post, but now that things seem to be bouncing back, we can move away from worries about stocks and back to worries about bonds. All worries, all the time—that’s the Eeyore channel! (For those who don’t know, I’ve been called Eeyore occasionally because of what some perceived as a dour outlook. I’ve certainly been more cheerful recently, at least about the economy.)

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4/11/14 – It’s a Fender Bender, Not a Crash

April 11, 2014

For some reason, we are experiencing a new wave of doom and gloom. In the past week, I’ve been forwarded several e-mails rehashing end-of-the-world stories, including an invitation to watch a video entitled Meltdown America. When I was interviewed on TV yesterday, the clear theme of the questions was whether this was it, the big crash.

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