Today’s post will be a brief one as I am on the road. Besides, we don’t yet know how the main event of the day—the Fed meeting—will turn out. Will the Fed cut rates? Drop a strong hint that a rate cut is coming? Or just sit tight? And what will the White House do?

Weeks of worry—about trade, growth, and Europe—knocked markets down. But today we have the reversal. Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), has once again come out in favor of looser monetary policy and lower rates, which cheered markets globally. And this morning, President Trump tweeted that he would be meeting with China’s leader, which further cheered markets. As I write this, the S&P 500 is up by 1 percent and well over 2,900. This level takes us to within 1 percent of a new all-time high.

Last week was full of positive economic surprises, making up for some disappointing data to start the month. This week will be a bit lighter on the economic update front, but there are still a few important releases to know about.

A controversial topic currently exciting economists goes by the name of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). While there are many ways to interpret it (as you can see from its name, it doesn’t actually describe anything), the key tenet is that deficits don’t matter. Governments that control their own currencies, like the U.S., can spend whatever they want simply by printing more money. The controversy doesn’t come from this assertion—it’s a simple fact—but from the different interpretations of what, exactly, this means.

One of the most reliable signals of a pending recession is when, in the jargon, the yield curve inverts. This sounds like a fancy phrase, but it simply means that investors demand to be paid more for a short-term loan than for a long-term one.

This has been a busy week of catching up after attending another round of excellent Commonwealth conferences. So, today I have just a few quick takes on some wide-ranging topics.

It’s time for our monthly look at market risk factors. Just as with the economy, there are several key factors that matter for the market in determining both the risk level and the immediacy of the risk. Although stocks remain close to all-time highs, the recent volatility is a reminder that, given valuations and recent market behavior, it is useful to keep an eye on these factors.

There were a number of important economic updates released last week, as is normally the case when we start a new month. Most of the news came in worse than expected, although there were some positive surprises. This week will also be busy, with looks at consumer sentiment and retail sales.

After a difficult first quarter, April’s data was better. But, in aggregate, May has not continued that improvement. Job growth has slowed further, taking it closer to a risk level. Plus, the interest rate outlook continues to deteriorate, with the yield curve now inverted for a period of weeks. Not all the news was bad: both consumer and business confidence improved, which should help growth going forward. Overall, though, risk levels have increased somewhat.

I do a semiannual update of my economic and market outlook every year, usually in several versions over a one- to two-month period. In the past couple of years, that strategy has worked. Fundamental conditions didn't change much over that period, even though headlines often did.