May was a tough month, with U.S. and international markets down. At the same time, last month’s decline could be considered modest, and it was not based on fundamentals. Instead, it was all about confidence, which was rattled by a reignited trade war with China and proposed tariffs on Mexico. Still, there was some good news. Consumer spending picked back up, and job growth remained strong.

Much of the recent market decline has been due to worries that the U.S. and China have been intensifying the trade confrontation, rather than trying to come to a deal. With the recent announcement by President Trump that he intends to impose tariffs on all imports from Mexico, trade risks have risen even further and markets have continued to drop. So, what could this latest round of tariffs mean for investors and for the markets?

Yesterday, we talked about why it might be 1998—or 1999—all over again. After all, many of the conditions are similar. Although growth continues for now and we may get a lifeline, you might be concerned that the economy could be settling into a recession in the next couple of quarters. Our most recent experience of a recession and market decline, 2008–2009, has left horrific memories. So, should we be panicking? In a word, no.

Recently, I've fielded a few calls from advisors asking for my thoughts on media coverage declaring that current market conditions are similar to those of the late 1990s. Their clients are worried about what might happen. Could we see a replay of 2000?

As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, I would like to take a moment to honor members of the U.S. military for their service and their sacrifice.

“In Flanders fields the poppies blow /
 Between the crosses, row on row . . .”
— John McCrae

Yesterday, we started Wonderful Wednesday with the benefits of share buybacks. But Eeyore has not left the building. Today, we debut Threatening Thursday. Just as Wednesday will be the day to highlight good news that often goes unreported, Thursday will be about pending threats that are not on the radar—but should be.

I am starting a new feature on the blog: Wonderful Wednesday! Much of the commentary we see in the press—and certainly here—tends to focus on things that can go wrong and things we should worry about. You rarely see a story stating that everything is great.

About a month ago, I started a series of posts on my current personal project: beating the market. As noted then, I am quite humble about what I expect from this endeavor. On the whole, I would like to use it as a way to learn more about the market itself, forcing myself to think through various issues in a very difficult context. But then again, you never know. We might really figure something out. We shall see.

Last week’s data was wide ranging, with an unusual mix of strong and weak results. This is a moderately busy week for economic reports, with a focus on the housing market, news from the Fed, and trends in business investment.

I just returned from spending the past week in Monaco on a Commonwealth conference trip. It was a stellar experience, per usual—our conference planners are the best of the best. Also per usual, getting out of my comfortable home environment has prompted a new level of reflection in me. In this case, I’ve been musing over affluence, income distribution, and what it means to be wealthy.