---
title: 7/30/13 – Why the Economy Should Get Better
image: https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-443862563-png/blog-files/073013_1.png
---

[![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer)

[![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/)

- [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer)
- [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/)

### ![print this page](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-1376458285-gif/images/print.gif)Print

# [7/30/13 – Why the Economy Should Get Better](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2013/07/30/73013-why-the-economy-should-get-better)

Posted by [Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai)

Find me on:

[LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [Twitter](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA)

This entry was posted on  Jul 30, 2013, 11:03:40 AM

 and tagged [Fiscal Cliff](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/fiscal-cliff), [Market Updates](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/market-updates) 

[Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2013/07/30/73013-why-the-economy-should-get-better#comments-listing)

We can expect the announcement of GDP growth for the second quarter to be lousy—around 1 percent or so if we’re lucky, less than that if we’re not. Why is this, and what does it say about the rest of the year?

The short answer is that we got what we asked for at the start of the year. If you remember, back then we had the fiscal cliff and a record, uncontrollable deficit. Some wanted higher taxes, others wanted reduced spending; everyone wanted a lower deficit.

As it turned out, everyone got what they wanted. The fiscal cliff deal raised everyone’s taxes, the sequester cut federal spending, and the deficit has dropped significantly. Hooray!

The problem, though, is that when everyone got what they wanted, they also got some things they didn’t expect, which may have led to the current slower growth.

Let’s start with the tax increases. Disposable personal income took a huge hit in early 2013, per the following chart.

[![073013\_1](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-443862563-png/blog-files/073013_1.png?width=300&height=225&name=073013_1.png)](http://theindependentmarketobserver.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/073013_1.png)

That kind of drop in disposable income certainly affected consumer spending, which represents about two-thirds of the economy. Spending continued to grow, but at much slower rates, as shown below.

[![073013\_2](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-443862578-png/blog-files/073013_2.png?width=300&height=225&name=073013_2.png)](http://theindependentmarketobserver.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/073013_2.png)

The other major negative factor was cutbacks in government spending. If you look at the composition of economic growth by sector, you can see that, in fact, government has detracted from growth for 2013.

[![073013\_3](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-443862593-png/blog-files/073013_3.png?width=300&height=225&name=073013_3.png)](http://theindependentmarketobserver.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/073013_3.png)

The drag may have come not only from federal cutbacks but also from state and local cutbacks. Government spending hits two ways—first from actual buying, and second from hiring. Government employment growth has actually been negative even as the private sector has shown healthy growth, as follows.

[![073013\_4](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-443862608-png/blog-files/073013_4.png?width=300&height=225&name=073013_4.png)](http://theindependentmarketobserver.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/073013_4.png)

Private employment is growing at levels from the mid-2000s while government employment continues to decline, although at a slower rate.

All of this does a great deal to help explain why we’re growing as slowly as we are. What does it tell us about the rest of the year?

Starting with consumer income and spending, the sharp downward adjustment might have been a one-time shock. Typically, this kind of a shock results in a couple of quarters of adjustment, then a resumption of previous spending patterns. In other words, the adjustment may be over and faster spending growth ready to resume.

This is also supported by faster growth in incomes and a resumption of consumer borrowing. The general rise in household net worth, driven by recovering housing markets and a rising stock market, also bodes well for increased spending. Finally, the increase in consumer confidence levels to five-year highs suggests that consumers are ready to start spending again. If consumers do open up their wallets, growth levels may get a significant boost.

Next, let’s look at government spending. At the federal level, just as with the tax increases, the sequester cuts were a one-time shock, with growth set to resume again from a lower level. This suggests that the drag from the sequester should be set to roll off in the next quarter or so; by eliminating that headwind, we should see improved growth.

At the state and local levels, finances have actually been recovering, to the point that there’s a front-page article in today’s *Wall Street Journal* about how cities are starting to hire again. Looking at the chart above, we can see that simply bringing government employment back to stable levels should meaningfully improve employment growth overall. If we move back to net hiring, the effect maybe even larger.

The slowdown in the first half of 2013 largely appears to be an unfortunate side effect of necessary adjustments in the fiscal environment that were made at the start of the year. Those adjustments promised longer-term gains in exchange for shorter-term pain. The good news is that we should be almost through the pain and are now poised to reap any gains.

- [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share)

### Subscribe via Email

![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar")

[Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
June 17, 2026

[Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
May 13, 2026

[Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
April 15, 2026

[Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
March 18, 2026

[Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
February 11, 2026

<https://news.yahoo.com/stocks-halt-rout-dollar-down-200241022.html>[More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements)

[![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLIZhQZgO1yQljrw8wX%2FFKqlasBNgYFZo1ZkMXIzEHTqhiCxTXkq6g4iyQ%2BH8WiZtGIDO8NF2TPaz6Mf76lXYt0Ci6qGfMXJmKpEw8ug2S5juyFUnqqGiVCr4gPo%2BLrfITo%2FeNTSLTyBTtdC6gKdfk%2FDySZuPWKpOmbZjfA5PnFWC3NhXsNByrX%2F0Qnp4tdpGdPSpAIczUK7wzc%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024)

### Hot Topics

Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy

[![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf)

### Archives

- [September 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/09)
- [August 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/08)
- [July 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/07)
- [June 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/06)
- [May 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/05)
- [April 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/04)
- [March 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/03)
- [February 2026 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/02)
- [January 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/01)
- [December 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/12)
- [November 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/11)
- [October 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/10)
- [September 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/09)
- [August 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/08)
- [July 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/07)
- [June 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/06)
- [May 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/05)
- [April 2025 (7)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/04)
- [March 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/03)
- [February 2025 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/02)
- [January 2025 (1)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/01)
- [December 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/12)
- [November 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/11)
- [October 2024 (9)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/10)
- [September 2024 (12)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/09)
- [August 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/08)
- [July 2024 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/07)
- [June 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/06)
- [May 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/05)
- [April 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/04)
- [March 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/03)
- [February 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/02)
- [January 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/01)
- [December 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/12)
- [November 2023 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/11)
- [October 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/10)
- [September 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/09)
- [August 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/08)
- [July 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/07)
- [June 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/06)
- [May 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/05)
- [April 2023 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/04)
- [March 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/03)
- [February 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/02)
- [January 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/01)
- [December 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/12)
- [November 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/11)
- [October 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/10)
- [September 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/09)
- [August 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/08)
- [July 2022 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/07)
- [June 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/06)
- [May 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/05)
- [April 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/04)
- [March 2022 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/03)
- [February 2022 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/02)
- [January 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/01)
- [December 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/12)
- [November 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/11)
- [October 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/10)
- [September 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/09)
- [August 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/08)
- [July 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/07)
- [June 2021 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/06)
- [May 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/05)
- [April 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/04)
- [March 2021 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/03)
- [February 2021 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/02)
- [January 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/01)
- [December 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/12)
- [November 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/11)
- [October 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/10)
- [September 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/09)
- [August 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/08)
- [July 2020 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/07)
- [June 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/06)
- [May 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/05)
- [April 2020 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/04)
- [March 2020 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/03)
- [February 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/02)
- [January 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/01)
- [December 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/12)
- [November 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/11)
- [October 2019 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/10)
- [September 2019 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/09)
- [August 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/08)
- [July 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/07)
- [June 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/06)
- [May 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/05)
- [April 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/04)
- [March 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/03)
- [February 2019 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/02)
- [January 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/01)
- [December 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/12)
- [November 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/11)
- [October 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/10)
- [September 2018 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/09)
- [August 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/08)
- [July 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/07)
- [June 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/06)
- [May 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/05)
- [April 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/04)
- [March 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/03)
- [February 2018 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/02)
- [January 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/01)
- [December 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/12)
- [November 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/11)
- [October 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/10)
- [September 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/09)
- [August 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/08)
- [July 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/07)
- [June 2017 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/06)
- [May 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/05)
- [April 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/04)
- [March 2017 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/03)
- [February 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/02)
- [January 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/01)
- [December 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/12)
- [November 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/11)
- [October 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/10)
- [September 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/09)
- [August 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/08)
- [July 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/07)
- [June 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/06)
- [May 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/05)
- [April 2016 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/04)
- [March 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/03)
- [February 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/02)
- [January 2016 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/01)
- [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12)
- [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11)
- [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10)
- [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09)
- [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08)
- [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07)
- [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06)
- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

see all

### Subscribe

- [RSS](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/rss.xml)

### Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member [FINRA](http://www.FINRA.org), [SIPC](http://www.SIPC.org)

Please review our [Terms of Use](https://www.commonwealth.com/terms-of-use).  <http://www.commonwealth.com/termsofuse.html>

Commonwealth Financial Network®

<http://wordpress.com/?ref=footer>