The Independent Market Observer

1/30/13 – A Look at Unemployment Insurance Claims

Posted by Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Find me on:

This entry was posted on Jan 30, 2013 6:05:00 AM

and tagged Employment

Leave a comment

Guest post from Peter Essele, CFA, senior investment research analyst

Every Thursday, the talking heads on CNBC make a big fuss about the initial claims numbers, pointing out whether they’ve moved up or down from the preceding week. Often, they eat up a good 10–15 minutes of airtime squawking over the fact that the newly released numbers are either above or below historical levels.

Although this makes for good entertainment, it does little to address the big picture. In order to draw some actual conclusions about how we look against historical norms, we’ve put together the following chart, which shows the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance divided by the total number of employed citizens. When the line moves north, it’s an indication that claims are increasing relative to the number of employed individuals. When it moves lower, it signals an improving employment picture (employment outpacing claims).

Currently, we’re at some of the lowest historical levels in terms of initial claims relative to the number of employed individuals. The prognosticators on CNBC like to compare the initial claims number with historical values in insolation, but, as the chart shows, the number of new claimants represents less than 0.3 percent of the total employment pool. In terms of employment health, this paints a pretty good picture.

013013


Subscribe via Email

Crash-Test Investing

Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Conversations

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®