The Independent Market Observer

11/5/12 - Heading Home

Posted by Brad McMillan, CFA, CAIA, MAI

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This entry was posted on Nov 5, 2012 8:50:33 AM

and tagged Fiscal Cliff, Politics and the Economy

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Today’s post will be a short one, as I’m finishing up at Commonwealth’s National Conference before traveling home—and also, frankly, because there’s not a lot of news.

The papers are focusing on the final day before the election, with the candidates and campaigns dashing around trying to do the one last thing that might make a difference. Recovery from Sandy is the other big story: human-interest components, details on specific problems, and speculation about the storm’s overall and long-term effects.

In my talk at the conference here in San Antonio, I highlighted the fact that employment appears to have started a lasting recovery after a substantial, and needed, adjustment. The recovery is real, and it should continue.

Supporting this are several factors, the most prominent being the resumption of household spending growth, particularly on housing and cars, the “re-shoring” effect, and the ongoing U.S. energy development boom. While we face a significant short-term challenge in the form of the fiscal cliff, once that is resolved, the reduction in uncertainty should provide a further boost. (I’ve written about all of these factors in the past and am working on a detailed outline that I’ll post next week.)

To my surprise, other analysts at the conference were even more bullish than I am, armed with additional facts and figures to back up the case for recovery. I am returning home even more encouraged than I was when I arrived.

Overall, it was a wonderful couple of days, full of great people, great fun, and great information. Be sure you get out and vote tomorrow for the candidate of your choice. You can’t complain if you don’t vote!

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