11/1/12 – Countdown to the Election: 5!

Posted by Brad McMillan, CFA, CAIA, MAI

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This entry was posted on Nov 1, 2012 2:00:50 PM

and tagged Politics and the Economy

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The papers today are all about elections, and with five days to go, both sides are pushing as hard as they can. Group dynamics are one focus—women had their day in the sun last week; this week, it seems to be Latinos, per the front-page story in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), “Election May Hinge on Latino Turnout.”

The focus also continues to be on the swing states, where Obama still seems to have an edge. The WSJ has “Polls: Obama Ahead in 3 Key States” on page A9, the Financial Times (FT) has “Obama and Romney vie for every last vote in a handful of states” on page 4, and the New York Times (NYT) has a good explanation of the situation from Nate Silver on page A12: “When State Polls Differ from National Polls” lays out the pros and cons of how his models incorporate both. Bottom line from Silver is that Obama probably has a sustainable national lead, on top of the lead reported in swing states, and that, based on his numbers, a Romney popular vote win and an Obama Electoral College win seems unlikely.

The Christie/Obama love fest that I commented on yesterday also made the front page of the NYT with “An Unlikely Political Pair, United by Disaster” and page A11 of the WSJ with “Political Truce Arises Amid Devastation.” The Republicans make the point in the articles that both men are just doing their jobs as public servants—which is very true—but I still get a sense that this is driven by how Christie sees the wind blowing.

Another story in the NYT, “As Focus Turns Local, GOP is Poised to Increase Edge in Governorships,” (p. A16), is also worth a look. With all of the attention on the presidential election and pending control of the Senate, very little has been written at the national level about the overall picture at the state level. Even if the GOP loses the presidential election, continued control of the House and a newfound moderation leave it well positioned to exploit its strong position at the state level for future federal gains.

I am on my way to San Antonio for Commonwealth’s National Conference, so will make this a short post. Looking forward to seeing Mary Matalin and James Carville dissect the political scene tomorrow afternoon.

Upcoming Appearances

Tune in to Bloomberg Radio's Bloomberg Businessweek on Friday, February 28, at 3:45 P.M. ET to hear Brad talk about the market. Stream the show live at https://www.bloombergradio.com/, listen through SiriusXM 119, or download Bloomberg's app, Bloomberg Radio+.

Tune into Yahoo Finance's The Final Round on Thursday, March 12, between 2:50 and 4:00 P.M. ET to hear Brad talk about the market. Exact interview time will be updated once confirmed. Watch at finance.yahoo.com

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