The Independent Market Observer

Waiting for Godot

Posted by Brad McMillan, CFA, CAIA, MAI

Find me on:

This entry was posted on Jun 19, 2012 1:21:07 PM

and tagged Debt Crisis, Market Updates

Leave a comment

Yesterday, I shared my view that the European situation will probably be resolved, and the eurozone preserved, as the alternative could be a return to the conflicts that ripped the continent apart in the last century. The Greek elections were the latest crisis flash point, opening up the possibility of electing Syriza, a party that had pledged to reject the painfully negotiated bailout package.

The results of the election were more or less as expected. Syriza didn’t win, and the winner is working on a coalition government that will preserve the existing deal. Rather than eliminating the day of reckoning, however, the results will probably only delay it. The fact that Syriza came in a strong second, and even the winners are talking about renegotiating the existing deal, suggests that Greece will be back in the news shortly.

Overall, media and market reaction has been mixed. The crisis continues to be front-page news in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and New York Times. Spanish bond rates remain above the red line of 7 percent, and Italian rates sit above 6 percent. Nonetheless, panic appears to have subsided, and equity markets are actually doing well, reflecting a sense that the problem of Europe has somehow been solved. European markets today are up, as are U.S. markets.

In that regard, the results of the Greek election have been somewhat counterproductive. While a sense of urgency was developing when it seemed the Greeks might pull down the whole structure, that pressure appears to have vanished, replaced by a renewed commitment to kicking the can down the road, which is strange. The underlying problems haven’t gone away; in fact, the bank runs in Greece and Spain continue, while Spanish and Italian bond rates remain high.

What may be supporting the markets is the expectation that the U.S. Fed, which is currently meeting, will pull another rabbit out of the hat. Or possibly that the G20 or the ECB—or someone, somewhere, somehow—will do something.

So now we’re on hold, in the confident expectation that Godot will show up. I hope he does—he promised he would! But he hasn’t come yet.

Perhaps tomorrow . . .

Subscribe via Email

Crash-Test Investing
New call-to-action

Hot Topics

New Call-to-action



see all



The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.


Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®