The Independent Market Observer

2021 Market Outlook [Video]

December 15, 2020

We’re nearing the end of a hard year, with the pandemic raging once again and the economy starting to slow. On the other hand, vaccines will soon be coming into play, companies are adapting, and there is the possibility of a spending boom next year. Despite risks ahead (e.g., the chance of another surge of infections with holiday travel), could 2021 be better for medical news, for the economy, and for the markets?

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Coronavirus Update: December 11, 2020 [Video]

December 11, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. We had mixed news on the medical front. The third wave of the pandemic continues, although there were positive developments on vaccines. People could start getting shots in days, and recent projections suggest we could approach herd immunity as soon as June. Turning to the economy, the news got worse. Job growth dropped substantially, and layoffs rose sharply. With the employment market down, consumer confidence softened further, along with retail spending. Clearly, the third wave is acting as a significant drag on the economy, but what should we expect from the markets? Watch my latest video to learn more.

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Market Thoughts for December 2020 [Video]

December 1, 2020

November was a very strong month for the stock markets, with most up by double digits. With good news on vaccines and the resolution of the presidential election, investors gained confidence. But medical risks remain, and the economic risks rose. Layoffs increased, and consumer confidence declined. Business confidence remained high but has pulled back.

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Coronavirus Update: November 25, 2020 [Video]

November 25, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, we’ve seen significant improvements. Case growth has shown signs of topping, indicating the third wave may be about to crest. Further, three vaccines were announced as effective and safe in the past two weeks. While the pandemic is still in force and there is a potential risk from Thanksgiving gatherings, the trends may be starting to reverse.

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Coronavirus Update: November 13, 2020 [Video]

November 13, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, case growth continues to accelerate, and new cases have reached all-time highs. This is something we need to watch, as the third wave is at a level where the national risks are material.

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Market Thoughts for November 2020 [Video]

November 2, 2020

October was a tough month for the markets. They started out strong but rolled over on rising medical risks. Fortunately, the impact was cushioned by better economic news.

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Coronavirus Update: October 30, 2020 [Video]

October 30, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, the third wave of the pandemic has accelerated around the country. With new cases at all-time highs and the geographic spread continuing to widen, this is something we need to watch.

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Coronavirus Update: October 16, 2020 [Video]

October 16, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, the pandemic remains under control at the national level, but state-level outbreaks are getting worse. Multiple states have seen case growth accelerate, to the point that some health care systems are at risk. This is something we need to watch.

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Coronavirus Update: October 2, 2020 [Video]

October 2, 2020

Today I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, the news was mixed. Although the pandemic remains under control, the case count continues to rise, as post-Labor Day infections register and as schools and universities reopen. Still, the number of tests has increased, and it now appears to be approaching the needed levels.

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Market Thoughts for October 2020 [Video]

October 1, 2020

September was a tough month for the markets. They began the month with a drop and ended with everything down, but by much less than feared. The economic news was better, with improved data from the labor market and consumer confidence bouncing back. Business confidence and investment were also healthy.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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