The Independent Market Observer

Coronavirus Update: June 5, 2020 [Video]

June 5, 2020

Today, I'd like to discuss where we are in the coronavirus crisis, including the latest economic and market news. It was a good week in terms of virus control here in the U.S. The daily spread growth rate dropped to 1.1 percent, and the number of new cases ticked down to 20,000 per day. Still, the possibility of a second wave of infections remains, especially given the protests happening across the country. Turning to the economy, we had more good news. Layoffs continued to decline, more people returned to work, and business and consumer confidence showed signs of improvement. The markets certainly took note of these positive developments, as evidenced by the steady rise in the stock market.

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Market Thoughts for June 2020 [Video]

June 2, 2020

In May, we saw real progress in the coronavirus, which allowed the economy to begin reopening. Hundreds of thousands returned to work, people began to shop again, and confidence started to stabilize. In turn, U.S. markets rose to just above their long-term trend line and are now fully expecting a V-shaped recovery.

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Coronavirus Update: May 29, 2020 [Video]

May 29, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus pandemic, including the economic and market implications. We had some good news in the past week, as there were no signs of a second wave of infections even as the economy continued to reopen. The daily spread rate remained at 1.5 percent per day in 9 of the past 10 days, bringing us to the lowest level since the pandemic started. Plus, the daily case growth continued to hold steady, and the number of active cases has begun to level off. On the economic front, layoffs continued to decrease, and people have started returning to work. We’re also seeing positive signs that consumers have the confidence to spend, as shown in the uptick in restaurant bookings and mortgage applications.

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Coronavirus Update: May 22, 2020 [Video]

May 22, 2020

Today, I'd like to give an update on the coronavirus pandemic, including its effects on the economy and markets. There was some good news on the pandemic front, with daily testing numbers continuing to rise. We didn’t see as much progress in the daily spread rate and the number of new cases, with both remaining relatively stable. Here, the results may be better than they look, as we didn’t get a bump in new cases even though the economy started to reopen. In fact, the economic reopening seems to be going better than many expected. The restaurant business has started to tick up, and mortgage applications have just about returned to 2019 levels.

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Coronavirus Update: May 15, 2020 [Video]

May 15, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus crisis, including the economic and market implications. It was another good week in terms of controlling the virus, with the daily spread rate dropping to less than 2 percent for five days in a row. Plus, testing increased to more than 300,000 tests per day, and the number of new cases per day continued to decline significantly. Similar progress was seen on the economic front. Layoffs continued, but millions of people have started to return to work—one of the positive effects of the reopening process. Of course, risks remain, with a second wave of infections looming the largest. But the foundation of the economy is starting to be rebuilt.

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Coronavirus Update: May 8, 2020 [Video]

May 8, 2020

Today, I'd like to take a look back over the past month to evaluate how far we’ve come in the coronavirus crisis. We’ve seen real progress in terms of the pandemic, with daily spread rates going from 15 percent at the start of April to less than 3 percent in recent days. Plus, the daily testing rate has doubled in that same time period, with the number of positive test results declining. We’re also making progress on the economic front. The news here isn’t necessarily good, but we could say it’s getting less bad. Weekly layoffs have started to trend down, federal stimulus programs have gone into effect, and a number of states have begun to reopen. The markets have taken note of these shifts and fully expect a V-shaped recovery.

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Market Thoughts for May 2020 [Video]

May 4, 2020

In April, U.S. markets were up by double digits. Still, the economic damage continued. Millions of jobs were lost, and businesses shut down. But we did see progress. The spread of the virus slowed, and testing increased. Plus, federal stimulus provided funds to individuals and businesses. The markets noted these improvements, bouncing back in April. In fact, the markets expect a full recovery in about a year. Are they right?

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Coronavirus Update: May 1, 2020 [Video]

May 1, 2020

Today, I'd like to discuss where we are in the coronavirus crisis, including a look at the virus itself, the economy, and the market.

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Coronavirus Update: April 24, 2020 [Video]

April 24, 2020

Today, I'd like to discuss where we are in the coronavirus crisis and what that means for the economy and markets. We’ve seen significant progress in terms of the virus, with the daily case growth rate dropping below 4 percent for several days in a row. Further, the number of tests given has risen from about 150,000 to 300,000 per day. As we turn to the economy, the news is more of a mixed bag. Jobless claims are still very high, although this damage may have started to peak. Plus, with measures like the Paycheck Protection Program and stimulus checks, both individuals and businesses are getting some much-needed relief.

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Coronavirus Update: April 17, 2020 [Video]

April 17, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus crisis, including its effects on the economy and markets. With regard to the virus itself, we’re seeing signs of progress. This week, the daily spread rate dipped below 5 percent, and the number of new cases per day started to stabilize. With this good news on the pandemic front, the focus is shifting to how to reopen the economy. Here, the news is not as good. With more than 22 million jobs lost over the past several weeks and many businesses remaining closed, the damage is mounting.

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