The Independent Market Observer

Coronavirus Update: June 19, 2020 [Video]

June 19, 2020

Today, I'd like to discuss the coronavirus, including its effect on the economy and markets. Over the past week, we’ve seen some state-level outbreaks of the virus. Still, there’s no sign of a national second wave of infections, with the daily spread rate at just above 1 percent and the daily case growth at 25,000 per day. So, despite some bad news at the local level, the virus remains under control and is actually showing signs of improvement in many states. On the economic front, the news was better. Layoffs continued to decrease, while hiring continued to improve. Perhaps the biggest news, however, was that consumer retail spending came in much better than expected, meaning consumers have jobs and are feeling confident.

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Coronavirus Update: June 12, 2020 [Video]

June 12, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus pandemic, including the economic and market implications. The virus remains under control, with the case growth rate at about 1 percent per day and daily case growth at about 20,000 per day. But while we didn’t see any signs of a national wave of second infections, it was a different story at the local level. Infection rates started to tick up in some states, which is something we need to keep an eye on. The news on the economic side, however, was better. Thus far, the reopening has been happening faster and more successfully than most imagined. In fact, last week’s jobs report revealed 2.5 million jobs were created in May. With economists anticipating a loss of 7.5 million jobs, this result was certainly a positive surprise. Plus, we saw a bounce in consumer and business confidence, as well as a rise in consumer spending.

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Coronavirus Update: June 5, 2020 [Video]

June 5, 2020

Today, I'd like to discuss where we are in the coronavirus crisis, including the latest economic and market news. It was a good week in terms of virus control here in the U.S. The daily spread growth rate dropped to 1.1 percent, and the number of new cases ticked down to 20,000 per day. Still, the possibility of a second wave of infections remains, especially given the protests happening across the country. Turning to the economy, we had more good news. Layoffs continued to decline, more people returned to work, and business and consumer confidence showed signs of improvement. The markets certainly took note of these positive developments, as evidenced by the steady rise in the stock market.

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Market Thoughts for June 2020 [Video]

June 2, 2020

In May, we saw real progress in the coronavirus, which allowed the economy to begin reopening. Hundreds of thousands returned to work, people began to shop again, and confidence started to stabilize. In turn, U.S. markets rose to just above their long-term trend line and are now fully expecting a V-shaped recovery.

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Coronavirus Update: May 29, 2020 [Video]

May 29, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus pandemic, including the economic and market implications. We had some good news in the past week, as there were no signs of a second wave of infections even as the economy continued to reopen. The daily spread rate remained at 1.5 percent per day in 9 of the past 10 days, bringing us to the lowest level since the pandemic started. Plus, the daily case growth continued to hold steady, and the number of active cases has begun to level off. On the economic front, layoffs continued to decrease, and people have started returning to work. We’re also seeing positive signs that consumers have the confidence to spend, as shown in the uptick in restaurant bookings and mortgage applications.

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Coronavirus Update: May 22, 2020 [Video]

May 22, 2020

Today, I'd like to give an update on the coronavirus pandemic, including its effects on the economy and markets. There was some good news on the pandemic front, with daily testing numbers continuing to rise. We didn’t see as much progress in the daily spread rate and the number of new cases, with both remaining relatively stable. Here, the results may be better than they look, as we didn’t get a bump in new cases even though the economy started to reopen. In fact, the economic reopening seems to be going better than many expected. The restaurant business has started to tick up, and mortgage applications have just about returned to 2019 levels.

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Coronavirus Update: May 15, 2020 [Video]

May 15, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus crisis, including the economic and market implications. It was another good week in terms of controlling the virus, with the daily spread rate dropping to less than 2 percent for five days in a row. Plus, testing increased to more than 300,000 tests per day, and the number of new cases per day continued to decline significantly. Similar progress was seen on the economic front. Layoffs continued, but millions of people have started to return to work—one of the positive effects of the reopening process. Of course, risks remain, with a second wave of infections looming the largest. But the foundation of the economy is starting to be rebuilt.

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Coronavirus Update: May 8, 2020 [Video]

May 8, 2020

Today, I'd like to take a look back over the past month to evaluate how far we’ve come in the coronavirus crisis. We’ve seen real progress in terms of the pandemic, with daily spread rates going from 15 percent at the start of April to less than 3 percent in recent days. Plus, the daily testing rate has doubled in that same time period, with the number of positive test results declining. We’re also making progress on the economic front. The news here isn’t necessarily good, but we could say it’s getting less bad. Weekly layoffs have started to trend down, federal stimulus programs have gone into effect, and a number of states have begun to reopen. The markets have taken note of these shifts and fully expect a V-shaped recovery.

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Market Thoughts for May 2020 [Video]

May 4, 2020

In April, U.S. markets were up by double digits. Still, the economic damage continued. Millions of jobs were lost, and businesses shut down. But we did see progress. The spread of the virus slowed, and testing increased. Plus, federal stimulus provided funds to individuals and businesses. The markets noted these improvements, bouncing back in April. In fact, the markets expect a full recovery in about a year. Are they right?

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Coronavirus Update: May 1, 2020 [Video]

May 1, 2020

Today, I'd like to discuss where we are in the coronavirus crisis, including a look at the virus itself, the economy, and the market.

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