The Independent Market Observer

Coronavirus Update: May 8, 2020 [Video]

May 8, 2020

Today, I'd like to take a look back over the past month to evaluate how far we’ve come in the coronavirus crisis. We’ve seen real progress in terms of the pandemic, with daily spread rates going from 15 percent at the start of April to less than 3 percent in recent days. Plus, the daily testing rate has doubled in that same time period, with the number of positive test results declining. We’re also making progress on the economic front. The news here isn’t necessarily good, but we could say it’s getting less bad. Weekly layoffs have started to trend down, federal stimulus programs have gone into effect, and a number of states have begun to reopen. The markets have taken note of these shifts and fully expect a V-shaped recovery.

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Market Thoughts for May 2020 [Video]

May 4, 2020

In April, U.S. markets were up by double digits. Still, the economic damage continued. Millions of jobs were lost, and businesses shut down. But we did see progress. The spread of the virus slowed, and testing increased. Plus, federal stimulus provided funds to individuals and businesses. The markets noted these improvements, bouncing back in April. In fact, the markets expect a full recovery in about a year. Are they right?

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Coronavirus Update: May 1, 2020 [Video]

May 1, 2020

Today, I'd like to discuss where we are in the coronavirus crisis, including a look at the virus itself, the economy, and the market.

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Coronavirus Update: April 24, 2020 [Video]

April 24, 2020

Today, I'd like to discuss where we are in the coronavirus crisis and what that means for the economy and markets. We’ve seen significant progress in terms of the virus, with the daily case growth rate dropping below 4 percent for several days in a row. Further, the number of tests given has risen from about 150,000 to 300,000 per day. As we turn to the economy, the news is more of a mixed bag. Jobless claims are still very high, although this damage may have started to peak. Plus, with measures like the Paycheck Protection Program and stimulus checks, both individuals and businesses are getting some much-needed relief.

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Coronavirus Update: April 17, 2020 [Video]

April 17, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus crisis, including its effects on the economy and markets. With regard to the virus itself, we’re seeing signs of progress. This week, the daily spread rate dipped below 5 percent, and the number of new cases per day started to stabilize. With this good news on the pandemic front, the focus is shifting to how to reopen the economy. Here, the news is not as good. With more than 22 million jobs lost over the past several weeks and many businesses remaining closed, the damage is mounting.

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Coronavirus Update: April 9, 2020 [Video]

April 9, 2020

Today, I'd like to look at where we are in the coronavirus crisis, including the economic and market implications. As the virus continues to move across the country, we can expect April to be a tough month. At the same time, there has been some positive news regarding the pandemic itself. The spread rate has dropped significantly over the past week, demonstrating the measures we’ve put in place seem to be working. But on the economic side, the news is not so good. We’ve lost more than 16 million jobs in the past three weeks. On top of that, both businesses and consumers have started to pull back. Fortunately, government programs are now being implemented, which may help mitigate the damage in the weeks ahead.

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Coronavirus Update: April 3, 2020 [Video]

April 3, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the wide-ranging effects of the coronavirus pandemic. With case counts continuing to rise, we may be entering into the toughest phase of the crisis. Although there are signs of general improvement, including a slowdown in case growth, the economic damage is mounting. More than 6 million people lost their jobs in the past week, bringing the total number of jobs lost thus far to around 10 million.

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Market Thoughts for April 2020 [Video]

April 1, 2020

March was a terrible month for the financial markets, with the coronavirus driving the volatility. In the U.S., markets were down by double digits. Further, the economic damage began to emerge, with three million jobs lost in a week. In response, the government quickly stepped in with a $2 trillion stimulus package. The markets took comfort in these measures, showing a slight bounce at month-end.

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Coronavirus Update: March 27, 2020 [Video]

March 27, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus crisis, including how it has affected the economy and financial markets thus far. While case counts have gone up, the growth rate (a better indicator) has started to trend down in the U.S. Unfortunately, the economic damage has just started to appear, as evidenced by the three million new unemployment claims last week. The government has stepped in with a $2 trillion stimulus package, a move that led the markets to stabilize.

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Coronavirus Update: March 19, 2020 [Video]

March 19, 2020

Today, I'd like to share my framework for thinking about the coronavirus crisis, focusing on the virus itself, its economic effects, and the market implications. Viewed through this lens, it seems the virus is controllable, as seen in China and South Korea. Further, the widespread panic has been a positive, enabling governments to put effective restrictions in place.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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