In Summary

Should Countries Stay or Go?

Europe, the Euro, and the Possible Failure of Political Integration

Europe, the Euro, and Political Integration

Balancing Europe and the Euro

The media has focused a lot of its attention on Europe recently—and deservedly so. The meta-stories generally concern weakness in one country or another or the slow disintegration of hope for Greece. I wrote a couple of weeks ago about how I thought Europe would end up pulling itself together for political reasons—the fear of history, mostly—but I did not really delve into what would have to happen to make that the case.

In July, I spoke at the Commonwealth Live! networking tour. The conversations I had there, as well as the increasing sense that Europe is continuing to deteriorate, suggested that I should lay out how I see the evolution of the eurozone and how it might succeed or fail. This thought process will obviously adjust to conditions on the ground, and one reason for writing it down is to track the changes as we move forward.

Sorry to miss yesterday’s post, but I spent the day in Story Land. For those of you not from New England, this is a small amusement park built around fairy tales—Cinderella’s castle, Heidi’s grandfather’s hut, the Three Billy Goats Gruff, and similar exhibits. It is perfect for small children, and my four-year-old son had what was possibly the best day of his life. We opened and closed the park and had a two-hour drive each way—thus, the day was not conducive to posting a blog.

It was an interesting day, though. From my son’s perspective, the whole thing was free, as it was paid for by a higher power (me). The visitors covered an amazingly wide range of people—Hasidim, Muslims, WASPs (me again), multiple races and socio-economic classes—all united in letting our kids have fun. The park itself was very well designed, well run, and incredibly effective at extracting money from dad’s wallet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnJ5dnFJjrA 

This week, I am writing from Maine, so the posts will probably be somewhat shorter than normal and the timing may be erratic. I am taking the chance to research lobster rolls up here—for your benefit, of course. After reading a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) story on the best lobster rolls in Maine, I feel obligated to do my own research. Further reports as the story develops.

A quiet weekend, with the only meta-story being the Friday rally, variously attributed to a Spanish bailout hint in the Financial Times (FT) and to job gains in the WSJ. Monday really had no meta-stories, but the papers displayed interesting differences in focus.

I do not normally read, much less review, books that self-characterize as prophecy. Most such books, especially those written more than 10 years ago, are kindly described as being of historical interest only. To find one that actually got quite a number of things right—both in specific types of events and time frame—is therefore pretty interesting.

It gets even more interesting when the book’s next set of predictions is not only scary, but also in line with its earlier forecasts that proved largely correct.