I do not normally read, much less review, books that self-characterize as prophecy. Most such books, especially those written more than 10 years ago, are kindly described as being of historical interest only. To find one that actually got quite a number of things right—both in specific types of events and time frame—is therefore pretty interesting.

It gets even more interesting when the book’s next set of predictions is not only scary, but also in line with its earlier forecasts that proved largely correct.

I am at the Financial Advisor magazine Innovative Alternative Strategies symposium today and tomorrow, where I will be sitting on the Chief Investment Officer panel. I will therefore be spending most of the day in sessions that I will talk about in later posts. That, combined with a relatively slow weekend in the news, makes this post a bit shorter than usual.

Two lead financial and economic stories yesterday. First, the markets melted up on the announcement by Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, that policy makers would do whatever was necessary to save the euro. The news hit the front page of the Financial Times (FT) with “Draghi triggers rally with bonds talk,” the front page of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) with “A Pledge to Save the Euro,” and the front page of the New York Times (NYT) business section with “Stocks Soar After Pledge to Support the Euro Zone.” All good, except that we have seen this movie before:

Scene 1: European official pledges support, assures markets that everything is under control.
Scene 2: Markets react positively.
Scene 3: Everyone thinks about it some more.
Scene 4: Markets drop.

This will be a brief update because I am on the last leg of the Commonwealth Live! road show. I was delayed in posting earlier this week because of travel, and I figure it is probably better to get a briefer posting up in real time rather than a longer one the next day. Let me know if you agree or disagree.

Watch An Economic Update

Nothing particularly new this morning. The meta-story about the Federal Reserve (Fed) getting closer to more stimulus shows up on page A1 of the New York Times (NYT) with “Fed Leaning Closer to New Stimulus if No Growth is Seen” and on page A1 of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) with “Fed Moves Closer to Action.” The articles seem to deal mostly with what the Fed could do, in a tone that suggests that this is all speculation. Interesting that it shows up in both papers in similar ways. This is probably a leading indicator of future policy, but it’s not hard news as yet.

Europe continues to simmer, although the Europeans themselves don’t seem to be all that worried. The Financial Times (FT) has two articles, “Brussels patient despite Spain’s pressures” and “ECB stands firm on Spain’s pleas,” that talk about how European officials are not planning further action at this point—and are even going on summer vacation. This insouciance would be reassuring, maybe, if it weren’t contradicted by other articles from the FT like “Rome places spending controls on Sicily” and “German private sector woes mount” and by articles from the WSJ such as “Downturn Deepens in Euro-Zone Economy” and “European Crisis Seen Spreading to Russia,” both from page A8. The Europeans still don’t seem to get it, which is mind-boggling.

Two big themes in the papers today—Europe’s continuing weakness and China’s growing assertiveness in the world.

Europe first. Spain is the big news, with yields rising even higher into unsustainable territory, driven by the regions, as I discussed yesterday. The Financial Times (FT) leads on page 1 with “Spain costs stoke bailout fears” and follows on page 4 with “Madrid in duel with regions for aid.” Spain will end up in a bailout, probably pretty shortly, and, as the fourth largest economy in Europe, this is going to strain the system—maybe to the breaking point.

There were no significant single financial events over the weekend, but there was continued fallout. The Financial Times (FT) led with “Deteriorating outlook drives Spain’s borrowing costs near euro-era highs.” Despite the bailout, bond yields are well above 7 percent—an unsustainable level—and appear likely to stay that way, according to the story on page B16 in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), “Bailing on Spain’s Bailout.” Greece is also back in the news, on page 3 of the FT with “ECB raises pressure on Athens over debt collateral” and on page A8 of the WSJ with “ECB Adds to Pressure on Greece.” The European story is not over yet, and it may erupt back into the headlines in short order.

The U.S. picture in the press is a bit more mixed. The WSJ ran “Unemployment Rises in Six of 10 Battleground States” on page A3 on Saturday and “Price Check: Drought May Hit Grocery Tab” on page B1, but on Monday, page B1 had “As Homes Go, So Do Pickups,” which pointed out a recovery in truck sales and home sales. The weight of the coverage is still negative—note “Bleak jobs outlook raises heat on the Fed” on page 1 of Monday’s FT—but some nuance is creeping into coverage of the U.S. Maybe it is a leading indicator.

One of my newly adopted habits, as I discussed in my “Good Habits” post a few days ago, is to read a chapter a day from a book that covers something I want to know more about. Given the major role China plays in how the world is evolving, I had become fairly current on the Chinese economy, but I had no in-depth knowledge of the country itself.

I still don’t, really. What I do have is a much better sense of the political and historical context in which China makes decisions. I would describe Henry Kissinger’s On China as applied history—history applied to an understanding of how a country is likely to act in the future . . . and why. In that sense, it succeeds well.

The papers this morning really only have two stories in common. The first is the U.S. drought and its effect on food prices; it’s covered on page 1 of the Financial Times (FT) in “U.S. Drought Triggers World Food Crisis Alert” and on page A1 (picture) and A11 of the New York Times (NYT) with “Widespread Drought is Likely to Worsen.” The FT compares the situation to 2008, when price peaks set off riots in 30 countries, noting that corn and soya prices are above the 2007–2008 levels and that wheat is up more than 50 percent in five weeks. The NYT reports that this is the most widespread drought in more than a half century; one-third of the nation’s counties have been declared federal disaster areas because of the drought, covering more than half of the continental U.S.

This means food prices will be increasing around the world—an annoyance in the U.S. but a critical problem in poorer countries where food is a significant part of the total budget for most families. We can expect to see bumps in inflation rates around the world, which may present a particular problem for China. One more story to keep an eye on over the next couple of months.