The Independent Market Observer

What Mattered This Week? Fed Is Likely Done with Rate Hikes

September 1, 2023

With the end of summer drawing near, it has been a busy couple of weeks. We had the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole and a whole bunch of economic data, including a new inflation release and the jobs report this morning. When we last talked, the markets were selling off. So, let’s look at where we are now and what mattered in the past couple of weeks.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Existing Home Sales Slow in July

August 28, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Index Concentration: A Tricky Problem for Investors

August 24, 2023

Brad here. One of the big market topics these days is how concentrated the stock market indices have become, with a handful of companies composing a larger and larger part of each index. This is certainly a problem—but why? And what do we do about it? In today’s post, my colleague, Wayne Richardson, has some thoughts on both. Thanks, Wayne!

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Monthly Market Risk Update: August 2023 [SlideShare]

August 23, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Retail Sales Growth Accelerates in July

August 21, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? China, Interest Rates, and Fundamentals

August 18, 2023

This has been a busy week, with a number of developments that, at first glance, seem concerning. But how worried should we be? Let's get right to what mattered.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2023 [SlideShare]

August 16, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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An Optimistic Outlook for Markets?

August 15, 2023

Brad here. One of the things I have learned is that while history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, it does rhyme—even in the financial markets. My colleague, Tom Logue, is a student of how the market behaves. Here, he lays out some reasons for optimism as we enter the fall. Thanks, Tom, and I hope you are right!

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Economic Release Snapshot: Headline Prices Rise in July

August 14, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? Mixed News on Inflation

August 11, 2023

Once again, this week was all about inflation—and the data was more mixed this time. Most of the news was good, as core inflation continued to tick down, while the monthly figures were in line with expectations. But the year-on-year headline number rose for the first time in months. It didn’t rise by a lot, only 0.2 percent. Still, that wasn’t a drop. It also raises the possibility that inflation could be bouncing back. Spoiler alert: I don’t think so.

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