The Independent Market Observer

Sam Millette

Sam Millette is director, fixed income, on the Investment Management and Research team at Commonwealth. With the firm since 2013, he manages the fixed income research team, responds to advisor requests, analyzes individual bonds, and authors market research and commentary. Sam graduated from Tufts University with a degree in economics and is a member of the CFA Society Boston.

Recent Posts

Monday Update: Lowered Expectations Lead to Better-Than-Expected Results

April 27, 2020

The economic data released last week largely came in above forecasts, primarily due to very low expectations by economists rather than significantly better economic activity. This week will be another busy one. We’ll get our first look at first-quarter GDP growth, the personal spending and income reports for March, and the weekly initial jobless claims report. Updates on consumer and manufacturer confidence will also be highlighted.

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Monday Update: Historically Bad Week for Economic Data

April 20, 2020

The economic data released last week came in largely worse than expected, highlighting the very real headwinds the economy is facing with the majority of the country effectively shut down. March’s retail sales and industrial production reports were two of the most disappointing releases, but the weakness was widespread. This week will again be packed with important reports, with highlights on housing sales, business and consumer sentiment, and business spending. We’ll also look closely at the weekly initial unemployment claims.

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Monday Update: Consumer Confidence Crashes

April 13, 2020

The data releases last week were disappointing but not surprising, given the headwinds created by the widespread efforts to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Six million Americans filed for initial unemployment claims for the second week in a row, and the drop in consumer sentiment set a record. This week will be packed with important updates, with an emphasis on the March retail sales report on Wednesday and the weekly initial jobless claims report on Thursday.

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Monday Update: Initial Jobless Claims Spike Again

April 6, 2020

The economic updates released last week came in generally better than expected. Business confidence remained surprisingly resilient, while employment figures, despite being very weak, did not reflect recent layoffs. This week will again be packed with economic updates, including reports on inflation, consumer confidence, and weekly initial jobless claims. 

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Monday Update: New Jobless Claims Hit All-Time High, Consumer Confidence Crashes

March 30, 2020

Last week’s economic updates were mixed. Some reports focusing solely on February showed a steadily growing economy, while more recent updates reflected the negative effect of the government measures taken during March to combat the spread of the coronavirus. This week will give us a chance to see just how concerned consumers and businesses are, based on the confidence updates set to be released for these sectors. We’ll get multiple looks at the current employment situation, with Thursday’s release of the weekly initial unemployment claims and Friday’s release of the March employment report.

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Monday Update: Retail Sales Fall Sharply in February

March 23, 2020

Last week’s updates, which touched on a broad cross section of the economy, mostly showed solid, fundamental improvements during February. That noted, the surprise rate cut by the Fed and a sharp drop in retail sales highlight the effect that the coronavirus will likely have on future reports. This week will be another busy one, with important reports on business and consumer confidence expected to draw the most attention.

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Monday Update: Consumer Confidence Drop Smaller Than Expected

March 16, 2020

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front. On an encouraging note, the preliminary consumer confidence report released for March showed a slightly smaller-than-expected drop in sentiment. This week will be busy, with many of the scheduled releases expected to show continued economic growth in February. Going forward, however, we expect to see headwinds due to the escalating nature of the coronavirus pandemic.

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Monday Update: Signs of Economic Improvement in February

March 9, 2020

Last week’s economic updates showed surprising economic strength in February, highlighted by improving business confidence and an unexpectedly strong February jobs report. In March, confidence figures are likely to decline, due to the global spread of the coronavirus. Nonetheless, before that crisis emerged, the recent updates pointed toward an improving economy poised for faster growth. This week will be relatively quiet on the economic update front. Economists will, however, be closely monitoring the preliminary consumer confidence report set to be released on Friday, which will be our first look at consumer confidence in March.

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Monday Update (on Tuesday): Consumer Confidence Remains Resilient

March 3, 2020

Although investor attention has been focused on concerns about the coronavirus and the equity market sell-off, last week’s economic updates showed surprising strength. The highlights of this week’s data releases will be reports on business confidence, international trade, and jobs.

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Monday Update: Housing Market Remains Healthy

February 24, 2020

Last week’s economic updates highlighted the housing sector, which continues to hum along at a healthy rate. This week’s reports will cover broader territory, as we wrap up the month with important releases that hit on most major areas of the economy.

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