The data is coming in, and it appears it was the weather after all. The jobs report showed a gain of 192,000 (slightly below expectations but still quite healthy), the unemployment rate remained steady at 6.7 percent (which is actually better than it looks), and private employment hit a new all-time high—all very good signs for the future.

I’m at the Commonwealth Winners Circle conference this week, talking with our financial advisors and having a wonderful time. The Arizona weather is a huge improvement on that of many parts of the country, which is lightening everyone’s mood. Even as we enjoy the better weather, though, one of the questions that keeps coming up is whether the current positive trends in many areas will continue, or change, and how will we know? Is the better economic weather transitory, or is spring really on its way?

I got a good question from Matt Parsons about yesterday’s post—essentially, what does high-frequency trading (HFT) mean to the average investor? If you’re retired, living off your investments, do you need to worry? This is an excellent question—thanks, Matt!

The New York Times has an excerpt from Michael Lewis’s new book, Flash Boys, which is essentially about how the stock markets have become rigged. There will be a tremendous amount of debate on whether his charges are fair, what actions should be taken, and so forth—the FBI has apparently already launched an investigation—but to my mind, this somewhat misses the point.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_kHSyp0-o0 

I haven’t done a book review for a while, as I’ve been reading outside the usual investing and economics areas. With Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the continuing low-grade conflicts in Asia as China expands its footprint, I thought it was time to discuss one of the more interesting books on geopolitics I’ve read recently, The Revenge of Geography by Robert Kaplan.

At Commonwealth, we evaluate managers of all sorts on many criteria, statistical and qualitative. We never know, really, whether the analysis will work—which is why we constantly review and manage our recommended list—but we know, from experience, most of what to look for in most types of funds.

[audio http://theindependentmarketobserver.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/brad-mcmillan-3-24.mp3]

Signs of Concern for the Stock Market

As I start to put together my commentary for the month of March, one thing that’s become apparent is that the market has weakened significantly. In February, we saw a dip at the start and then a strong recovery, but this month we’re pretty much flat, which conceals several significant ups and downs.

After writing yesterday’s post on the reversal of globalization, I spent some more time thinking about the rest of the world. Like most Americans, that’s pretty much how I think of it: the U.S. plus the rest of world. I fully recognize just how inadequate this is, but it remains my default mode of thinking, as it does for most of the U.S. population.