For this first installment, let’s take a look at employment stats, which I pulled from Haver Analytics.
March/Q1 |
2015 |
2010 |
2005 |
2000 |
1995 |
1990 |
Monthly job gains (3-month moving average) |
197 |
42 |
193 |
276 |
250 |
266 |
Annual job gains |
3,169 |
−3,508 |
2,069 |
3,216 |
3,826 |
2,017 |
Average weekly hours |
33.7 |
33.2 |
33.7 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
Unemployment rate |
5.5 |
9.9 |
5.2 |
4.0 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
Underemployment rate |
10.9 |
17.1 |
9.1 |
7.1 |
9.9 |
N/A |
Median duration of unemployment |
12.2 |
20.04 |
9.3 |
6.0 |
8.3 |
5.1 |
Real hourly earnings |
9.05 |
8.87 |
8.47 |
8.25 |
7.77 |
7.96 |
Job openings (%) |
3.5 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
3.6 (Dec.) |
|
|
Voluntary quits |
1.9 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
2.3 (Dec.) |
|
|
Available labor supply as % of labor force |
9.5 |
13.8 |
8.6 |
7.3 |
9.8 |
|
Looking at today’s employment data in the context of the past 25 years, a couple of points stand out.
Many current stats are comparable to those we saw in the good times. For example:
On the other hand, this kind of comparison clearly shows the many ways in which the current recovery is falling short. For instance:
All in all, these figures suggest a rapidly normalizing—but not yet normal—labor market. The problems lie with the large numbers of both long-term unemployed and people who are not fully employed. The gap between these indicators and the high level of job openings suggests the issue is not mainly one of no jobs—the jobs are there—but of matching workers with those jobs.
Probably relatively slow gains. As workers with job-matched skills are absorbed, the remaining unemployed workers will become even more mismatched—and less likely to get a job. The fact that we’re seeing healthy numbers for many metrics suggests that point is approaching.
Although the economy is regaining its health, the problem will continue to get worse for a large subset of workers. This is the major employment challenge we face right now.