Economic Release Snapshot: GDP Growth Accelerates in Third Quarter

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of October 23

Third-quarter GDP growth, advance estimate (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month GDP growth: +4.5%/+2.1%
• Actual existing GDP growth: +4.9%

Economic growth accelerated more than expected in the third quarter, as a rise in personal consumption growth and imports fueled the fastest quarterly economic growth since early 2021. While the strong growth during the quarter highlighted the strength of the current economic expansion, economists expect to see slower growth in the quarters ahead.

Durable goods orders, September, preliminary (Thursday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: 1.9%/–0.1%
• Actual durable goods orders change: +4.7%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: 0.2%/0.5%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.5%

Headline and core durable goods orders improved more than expected in September, which was a good sign for business investment.

Personal spending and personal income, September (Friday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Actual personal income change: +0.3%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.5%/+0.4%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.7%

Personal income and spending continued to rise in September, as the larger-than-expected increase in spending marked six consecutive months of spending growth.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of October 30

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, October (Tuesday)

Consumer confidence is set to drop in October, which would mark three consecutive months of declining confidence.

ISM Manufacturing, October (Wednesday)

Manufacturer confidence is expected to remain unchanged in October after improving more than expected in September. The index is set to stay in contractionary territory during the month.

FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the conclusion of its November meeting, but Fed chair Jerome Powell may signal hawkish intent at future meetings in his post-meeting press conference.

Employment report, October (Friday)

Economists expect to see 175,000 jobs added in October following an unexpected hiring surge in September.

ISM Services, October (Friday)

Service sector confidence is set to fall modestly in October but remain in expansionary territory during the month.