Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Confidence Declines in February

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of February 27

Durable goods orders, preliminary estimate, January (Monday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: –4.0%/+5.1%
• Actual durable goods orders change: –4.5%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.1%/–0.4%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.7%

Headline durable goods orders fell more than expected in January due to a slowdown in volatile transportation orders. On the other hand, core durable goods orders increased more than expected, signaling that business investment was healthy to start the year.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, February (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior Consumer Confidence Index: 108.5/106
• Actual Consumer Confidence Index: 102.9

Consumer confidence declined modestly in February due to souring consumer expectations for the future. The increased consumer pessimism was largely due to expectations for fewer available jobs and lower income ahead.

ISM Manufacturing, February (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 48/47.4
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 47.7

Manufacturer confidence improved modestly in February; however, the index still sits in contractionary territory for the fourth straight month.

ISM Services, February (Friday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 54.5/55.2
• Actual ISM Services index: 55.1

Service sector confidence fell modestly in February. This left the index in healthy expansionary territory following the larger-than-expected increase in January.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of March 6

International trade report, January (Wednesday)

The monthly trade deficit is expected to increase modestly in January for the second consecutive month.

Employment report, February (Friday)

Economists expect to see 200,000 jobs added in February, following a much larger-than-expected increase in January. The unemployment rate is set to remain unchanged at 3.4 percent.