Let’s start with overall growth. For the first quarter, we just got an updated estimate that shows growth was much faster than expected. That's good news. But it's also old news. The worry has been that growth is slowing right now. And if it is slowing, it's better to be slowing from a faster pace, which is what we now have.
But when we look at the most current data, we don’t actually see much slowing at all.
Durable goods orders, which are a good proxy for business investment, rose from a strong level to a really strong one in May. And if you exclude airplanes, they swung from a decline to a strong gain. Businesses investing is a good sign for the economy, and that is what we see here.
But businesses are only a minority of the economy as a whole; it's the consumer that matters most. And here, too, the news was good. Consumer confidence rose sharply in June, to the highest level since early last year. Personal income was also up, as was personal spending. People are confident, earning, and spending—and at over two-thirds of the economy, that means there is no recession in sight.
That is what mattered this week. We're three for three on current data, including the most important component of the economy. While there is a lot of fear about a slowdown, the data is showing the opposite. And that's a good way to end the week.
Have a great weekend—and Happy Independence Day!