Economic Release Snapshot: Year-Over-Year Inflation Moderates in April

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of May 8

Consumer Price Index, April (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.4%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +5.0%/+5.6%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +5.0%/+5.5%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +4.9%/+5.5%

Consumer inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, with the annual 4.9 percent increase representing the lowest level of consumer inflation in two years. Core consumer price growth also slowed modestly during the month.

Producer Price Index, April (Thursday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.4%/+0%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.7%/+3.4%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.5%/+3.3%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.3%/+3.2%

Producer inflation showed signs of slowing year-over-year growth in April. Headline producer price growth fell to 2.3 percent during the month, which was better than expected and marked the lowest level of producer inflation since early 2021.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, May, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior consumer sentiment index: 63/63.5
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 57.7

Consumer sentiment fell more than expected to start May, primarily driven by a sharp drop in consumer expectations for future economic conditions. This result brought the index to its lowest level since November 2022, signaling headwinds for consumer spending in the months ahead.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of May 15

Retail sales, April (Tuesday)

The April retail sales report is expected to show a return to sales growth following two months of declines.

Industrial production, April (Tuesday)

Industrial production is expected to remain unchanged in April following three months of gains to start the year.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, May (Tuesday)

Home builder confidence is set to remain unchanged in May, which would leave the index in contractionary territory for the month.

Housing starts and building permits, April (Wednesday)

Housing starts and building permits are set to come in mixed in April, with starts set to fall and permits set to increase modestly.

Existing home sales, April (Thursday)

Existing home sales are expected to fall in April, which would mark two consecutive months of declining sales and signal continued headwinds for the housing sector.